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Inserção comercial do Brasil na américa do sul: um estudo sobre os efeitos da China na região

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  • Brito, Marcio Holland de

Abstract

Este trabalho analisa a importância relativa de diferentes parceiros comerciais das economias da América doSul, nas últimas duas décadas. A principal motivação deste estudo é a crescente influência da China nocomércio internacional das economias da região. Conforme pesquisa empírica, analisa-se como a influência daChina altera as relações comerciais no interior da região e de cada economia perante o resto do mundo. Entre osresultados mais relevantes destaca-se o fato de que a rápida penetração comercial da China na região renova assuas vantagens comparativas em recursos naturais, confirmando a vocação regional como exportadora deprodutos primários. Outros resultados obtidos pelo uso da metodologia VAR são consistentes com a hipótesede que volatilidade nos termos de troca explica porque a performance econômica da América Latina é tãofrágil. Os resultados incluem uma relação positiva entre crescimento e melhoria nos termos de troca. Noutraspalavras, mesmo alterando sua direção comercial, as economias da região mantêm-se vulneráveis às oscilaçõesdos preços internacionais de commodities e aos termos de troca.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Textos para discussão with number 248.

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Date of creation: 15 Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:248

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  1. Ricardo N. Bebczuk & Daniel Berrettoni, 2006. "Explaining Export Diversification: An Empirical Analysis," Department of Economics, Working Papers 065, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  2. Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Arvind Subramanian, 2013. "Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 22(4), pages 570-615, August.
  3. Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, December.
  4. William F. Maloney & Daniel Lederman, 2008. "In search of the Missing Resource Curse," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  5. Jansen, Marion & Lennon, Carolina & Piermartini, Roberta, 2009. "Exposure to External Country Specific Shocks and Income Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 7123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Pritchett, Lant & Woolcock, Michael, 2004. "Solutions When the Solution is the Problem: Arraying the Disarray in Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 191-212, February.
  7. Blattman, Christopher & Hwang, Jason & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2007. "Winners and losers in the commodity lottery: The impact of terms of trade growth and volatility in the Periphery 1870-1939," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 156-179, January.
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