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Does Regression Discontinuity Design Work? Evidence from Random Election Outcomes

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  • Hyytinen, Ari
  • Meriläinen, Jaakko
  • Saarimaa, Tuukka
  • Toivanen, Otto
  • Tukiainen, Janne

Abstract

We use elections data in which a large number of ties in vote counts between candidates are resolved via lottery. We benchmark non-experimental RDD estimates of personal incumbency advantage against the estimate produced by this experiment that takes place exactly at the cutoff. The experimental estimate suggests that there is no personal incumbency advantage. In contrast, standard local linear RDD estimates suggest a moderate and statistically significant effect. Bias-correction and undersmoothing procedures however bring the RDD estimate(s) in line with the experimental estimate. Therefore, careful implementation of RDD can meet the replication standard in the context of close elections. 'This version (September 21, 2015) replaces the November 20, 2014 version.'

Suggested Citation

  • Hyytinen, Ari & Meriläinen, Jaakko & Saarimaa, Tuukka & Toivanen, Otto & Tukiainen, Janne, 2015. "Does Regression Discontinuity Design Work? Evidence from Random Election Outcomes," Working Papers 59, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:fer:wpaper:59
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    File URL: https://www.doria.fi/handle/10024/148797
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Prato, Carlo & Wolton, Stephane, 2014. "Electoral Imbalances and their Consequences," MPRA Paper 68650, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Nov 2015.
    2. Fiva, Jon H. & Halse, Askill H., 2016. "Local favoritism in at-large proportional representation systems," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 15-26.
    3. Kaisa Kotakorpi & Panu Poutvaara & Marko Tervio, 2013. "Returns to office in national and local politics," Discussion Papers 86, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    4. Matakos, Konstantinos & Savolainen, Riikka & Troumpounis, Orestis & Tukiainen, Janne & Xefteris, Dimitrios, 2018. "Electoral Institutions and Intraparty Cohesion," Working Papers 109, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Jaakko Meriläinen & Janne Tukiainen, 2018. "Rank effects in political promotions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 87-109, October.
    6. Tukiainen, Janne & Takalo, Tuomas & Hulkkonen, Topi, 2019. "Relative age effects in political selection," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 50-63.
    7. Potrafke, Niklas & Roesel, Felix, 2020. "The urban–rural gap in healthcare infrastructure: does government ideology matter?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 54(3), pages 340-351.
    8. Hyytinen, Ari & Merilã„Inen, Jaakko & Saarimaa, Tuukka & Toivanen, Otto & Tukiainen, Janne, 2018. "Public Employees as Politicians: Evidence from Close Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 68-81, February.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Meriläinen, Jaakko & Tukiainen, Janne, 2016. "Primary Effect in Open-List Elections," Working Papers 79, VATT Institute for Economic Research.

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