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Comunicação e política monetária no Brasil

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  • Adonias Evaristo Costa Filho
  • Fabiana Rocha
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    Abstract

    O objetivo deste artigo é discutir o papel da comunicação na condução da política monetária do Banco Central do Brasil. Constrói-se, inicialmente, um índice que traduz a informação qualitativa contida nas atas do COPOM num índice ordenado, semelhante ao construído por Rosa e Verga (2005). Encontra-se evidência que a comunicação do COPOM é consistente no sentido de que as palavras são seguidas por ações na mesma direção. Baseado em estimativas de regras de Taylor, encontra-se também evidência de que o índice ajuda a entender a fixação da taxa de juros, justificando a prática de central bank watching.

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    File URL: ftp://cpq.fearp.usp.br:2300/textos_discussao/eco/wpe08_17.pdf
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    File Function: First version, 2008
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto in its series Working Papers with number 08_17.

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    Date of creation: 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:fea:wpaper:08_17

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    Related research

    Keywords: communication; transparency; monetary policy index; central bank watching;

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    References

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    1. Petra M. Geraats & Sylvester C.W. Eijffinger & Carin A.B. van der Cruijsen, 2006. "Does Central Bank Transparency Reduce Interest Rates?," DNB Working Papers 085, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Haan, J. de & Rybinski, K., 2007. "Central Bank transparency and central bank communication: Editorial introduction," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-202809, Tilburg University.
    3. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, 03.
    5. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2010. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1266-1298, December.
    6. Geraats, Petra M., 2001. "Why adopt transparency? The publication of central bank forecasts," Working Paper Series 0041, European Central Bank.
    7. Jansen, David-Jan & De Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Talking heads: the effects of ECB statements on the euro-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361, March.
    8. Gerlach, Stefan, 2004. "Interest Rate Setting by the ECB: Words and Deeds," CEPR Discussion Papers 4775, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
    10. Marie Musard-Gies, 2005. "Do ECB's statements steer short-term and long-term interest rates in the euro zone?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 56, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    11. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2003. "Does monetary policy transparency reduce disinflation costs?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(5), pages 521-540, 09.
    12. Eric T. Swanson, 2004. "Federal Reserve transparency and financial market forecasts of short-term interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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