IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/22064.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effect of Uncertainty on Entrepreneurial Activity

Author

Listed:
  • TAKAHASHI Hidenori
  • YAMAKAWA Yasuhiro

Abstract

Although uncertainty is an important concept in entrepreneurship research, its impact on entrepreneurial activity has not been explored. We examine whether, and under what conditions, uncertainty affects entrepreneurial activity. Using data from 52 countries over 16 years, we find no evidence that uncertainty affects entrepreneurial activity. However, we find evidence that potential entrepreneurs start their businesses in uncertain circumstances if institutions are in place that reduce the cost of starting a business. These results suggest that it may not be external factors such as uncertainty that influence potential entrepreneurs’ decisions, but internal factors.

Suggested Citation

  • TAKAHASHI Hidenori & YAMAKAWA Yasuhiro, 2022. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Entrepreneurial Activity," Discussion papers 22064, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:22064
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/22e064.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Seung-Hyun & Yamakawa, Yasuhiro & Peng, Mike W. & Barney, Jay B., 2011. "How do bankruptcy laws affect entrepreneurship development around the world?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 505-520, September.
    2. Paul Reynolds & Niels Bosma & Erkko Autio & Steve Hunt & Natalie De Bono & Isabel Servais & Paloma Lopez-Garcia & Nancy Chin, 2005. "Global Entrepreneurship Monitor: Data Collection Design and Implementation 1998–2003," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 205-231, February.
    3. Djankov, Simeon & McLiesh, Caralee & Shleifer, Andrei, 2007. "Private credit in 129 countries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 299-329, May.
    4. Dew, Nicholas & Read, Stuart & Sarasvathy, Saras D. & Wiltbank, Robert, 2009. "Effectual versus predictive logics in entrepreneurial decision-making: Differences between experts and novices," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 287-309, July.
    5. John Armour & Douglas Cumming, 2008. "Bankruptcy Law and Entrepreneurship," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 303-350.
    6. Gompers, Paul & Gornall, Will & Kaplan, Steven N. & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2021. "Venture Capitalists and COVID-19," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(7), pages 2474-2499, November.
    7. Saul Estrin & Tomasz Mickiewicz & Anna Rebmann, 2017. "Prospect theory and the effects of bankruptcy laws on entrepreneurial aspirations," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 977-997, April.
    8. Seung-Hyun Lee & Yasuhiro Yamakawa, 2012. "Forgiving Features for Failed Entrepreneurs vs. Cost of Financing inBankruptcies," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 49-79, February.
    9. Alexander McKelvie & Gaylen N. Chandler & Dawn R. DeTienne & Anette Johansson, 2020. "The measurement of effectuation: highlighting research tensions and opportunities for the future," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 689-720, March.
    10. Mark D. Packard & Brent B. Clark & Peter G. Klein, 2017. "Uncertainty Types and Transitions in the Entrepreneurial Process," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(5), pages 840-856, October.
    11. Gompers, Paul A. & Gornall, Will & Kaplan, Steven N. & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2020. "How do venture capitalists make decisions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 169-190.
    12. Fan, Wei & White, Michelle J, 2003. "Personal Bankruptcy and the Level of Entrepreneurial Activity," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(2), pages 543-567, October.
    13. Yongwook Paik, 2013. "The Bankruptcy Reform Act of 2005 and Entrepreneurial Activity," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 259-280, June.
    14. Jonathan P. O'Brien & Timothy B. Folta & Douglas R. Johnson, 2003. "A real options perspective on entrepreneurial entry in the face of uncertainty," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 515-533.
    15. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    16. Chandler, Gaylen N. & DeTienne, Dawn R. & McKelvie, Alexander & Mumford, Troy V., 2011. "Causation and effectuation processes: A validation study," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 375-390, May.
    17. Gry Agnete Alsos & Tommy Høyvarde Clausen & René Mauer & Stuart Read & Saras D. Sarasvathy, 2020. "Effectual exchange: from entrepreneurship to the disciplines and beyond," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 605-619, March.
    18. Tajaddini, Reza & Gholipour, Hassan F., 2021. "Economic uncertainty and business formation: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    19. Bylund, Per L. & McCaffrey, Matthew, 2017. "A theory of entrepreneurship and institutional uncertainty," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 461-475.
    20. Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen, 2002. "Patents, Real Options and Firm Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages 97-116, March.
    21. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    22. Wiltbank, Robert & Read, Stuart & Dew, Nicholas & Sarasvathy, Saras D., 2009. "Prediction and control under uncertainty: Outcomes in angel investing," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 116-133, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chong Kyoon Lee & Johan Wiklund & Alejandro Amezcua & Tae Jun Bae & Almantas Palubinskas, 2022. "Business failure and institutions in entrepreneurship: a systematic review and research agenda," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1997-2023, April.
    2. Saul Estrin & Tomasz Mickiewicz & Anna Rebmann, 2017. "Prospect theory and the effects of bankruptcy laws on entrepreneurial aspirations," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 977-997, April.
    3. Seung-Hyun Lee & Yasuhiro Yamakawa, 2012. "Forgiving Features for Failed Entrepreneurs vs. Cost of Financing inBankruptcies," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 49-79, February.
    4. Maren Forier & Nadine Lybaert & Maarten Corten & Niels Appermont & Tensie Steijvers, 2023. "The flip side of the coin: how entrepreneurship-oriented insolvency laws can complicate access to debt financing for growth firms," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 461-495, December.
    5. Sadeghi, Ali & Kibler, Ewald, 2022. "Do bankruptcy laws matter for entrepreneurship? A Synthetic Control Method analysis of a bankruptcy reform in Finland," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    6. Fischer, Denise & Greven, Andrea & Tornow, Mark & Brettel, Malte, 2021. "On the value of effectuation processes for R&D alliances and the moderating role of R&D alliance experience," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 606-619.
    7. Pankaj C. Patel & Srikant Devaraj, 2021. "The state‐level exemption changes in Chapter 7 protection and entrepreneurial activity in the United States," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 1089-1104, July.
    8. Luca Fare & Marcus Dejardin & Eric Toulemonde, 2023. "Bankruptcy recovery rate and small businesses' innovation," DeFiPP Working Papers 2302, University of Namur, Development Finance and Public Policies.
    9. Alessandro Melcarne & Giovanni B. Ramello, 2020. "Bankruptcy delay and firms’ dynamics," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 405-419, February.
    10. Koller, Sonia & Stephan, Ute & Ahmetoglu, Gorkan, 2022. "Ecological rationality and entrepreneurship: How entrepreneurs fit decision logics to decision content and structure," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 37(4).
    11. David J. Rapp & Michael Olbrich, 2021. "On predictive entrepreneurial action in uncertain, ill-structured conditions," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 1961-1979, October.
    12. Lupp, Daniel, 2023. "Effectuation, causation, and machine learning in co-creating entrepreneurial opportunities," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    13. Stroe, Silvia & Parida, Vinit & Wincent, Joakim, 2018. "Effectuation or causation: An fsQCA analysis of entrepreneurial passion, risk perception, and self-efficacy," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 265-272.
    14. Douglas Cumming & Minjie Zhang, 2023. "Bankruptcy law and angel investors around the world," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 54(7), pages 1256-1277, September.
    15. Mumford, Jonathan Van & Zettinig, Peter, 2022. "Co-creation in effectuation processes: A stakeholder perspective on commitment reasoning," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 37(4).
    16. Kun Fu & Karl Wennberg & Björn Falkenhall, 2020. "Productive entrepreneurship and the effectiveness of insolvency legislation: a cross-country study," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 383-404, February.
    17. González, Francisco, 2021. "Creditor rights and entrepreneurship: Evidence from legal changes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 278-299.
    18. Farzana Chowdhury & David B. Audretsch & Maksim Belitski, 2019. "Institutions and Entrepreneurship Quality," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 43(1), pages 51-81, January.
    19. Lee, Seung-Hyun & Peng, Mike W. & Song, Sangcheol, 2013. "Governments, entrepreneurs, and positive externalities: A real options perspective," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 333-347.
    20. Anastasiia Laskovaia & Galina Shirokova & Michael H. Morris, 2017. "National culture, effectuation, and new venture performance: global evidence from student entrepreneurs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 687-709, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:22064. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.