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The effects of a mixed approach toward management earnings forecasts: evidence from China

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  • Huang, Xiaobei
  • Li, Xi
  • Tse, Senyo
  • Tucker, Jennifer Wu

Abstract

Chinese regulators mandate management earnings forecasts when managers’ earnings expectations meet bright-line thresholds and allow voluntary forecasts in other circumstances. We examine the effects of this mixed approach. We find that Chinese mandatory forecasts have significant information content. Moreover, we observe a learning effect: mandatory forecasts appear to stimulate voluntary forecasts in subsequent periods as managers become familiar with the forecasting and disclosing procedures through forced experience. We find one negative consequence of the mixed approach, however: managers appear to manipulate earnings to avoid the forecast threshold of large earnings decreases. Overall, we document the pros and cons of a mixed approach toward management earnings forecasts in a major emerging market.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Xiaobei & Li, Xi & Tse, Senyo & Tucker, Jennifer Wu, 2018. "The effects of a mixed approach toward management earnings forecasts: evidence from China," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87113, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:87113
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Kun Tracy Wang & Nathan Zhenghang Zhu, 2023. "Conditional Mandates on Management Earnings Forecasts: The Impact on the Cost of Debt," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 59(4), pages 901-953, December.
    3. Hanwen Chen & Siyi Liu & Xin Liu & Jiani Wang, 2022. "Opportunistic timing of management earnings forecasts during the COVID‐19 crisis in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(S1), pages 1495-1533, April.
    4. Qian Wang & Duowen Wu & Lina Yan, 2021. "Effect of positive tone in MD&A disclosure on capital structure adjustment speed: evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(4), pages 5809-5845, December.
    5. Lu, Hai & Shin, Jee-Eun & Zhang, Mingyue, 2023. "Financial reporting and disclosure practices in China," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1).
    6. Li, Shan & Mihaylov, George & Peranginangin, Yessy & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2021. "Short selling patterns in cross-listed stocks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    7. Nathan Zhenghang Zhu & Kun Tracy Wang & Mark Wilson, 2022. "The Effect of Conditional Management Earnings Forecast Mandates on Voluntary Disclosure and Analyst Forecast Properties," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 58(3), pages 479-522, September.
    8. Ding, Xin & Tan, Wenhao & Kang, Yixuan, 2021. "The spillover effect of regulatory penalties on management and analysts’ earnings forecasts: Empirical evidence based on directors networks in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 502-515.
    9. Liu, Beibei & Tan, Keqi & Wong, Sonia M.L. & Yip, Rita W.Y., 2022. "Intra-industry information transfer in emerging markets: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; forecast mandate; management earnings forecast; voluntary disclosure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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