IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/114948.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are non-primary exports the source for further economic growth in the UAE?

Author

Listed:
  • Kalaitzi, Athanasia
  • Samer, Kherfi
  • Al-Rousan, Sahel
  • Katsaiti, Marina-Selini

Abstract

This paper investigates whether non-primary exports directly or indirectly cause economic growth in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This study performs the Johansen test to examine the presence of co-integration between the variables in an augmented production function. The Granger causality test is performed to investigate the short-run causality between non-primary exports and economic growth, while the long-run causality is investigated by employing the Toda and Yamamoto procedure. The empirical analysis indicates that the variables are co-integrated, and that short-run causality runs from non-primary exports to economic growth; results exhibit no evidence of direct causality from non-primary exports to economic growth in the long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Kalaitzi, Athanasia & Samer, Kherfi & Al-Rousan, Sahel & Katsaiti, Marina-Selini, 2022. "Are non-primary exports the source for further economic growth in the UAE?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114948, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:114948
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/114948/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    2. Keller, Wolfgang, 2000. "Do Trade Patterns and Technology Flows Affect Productivity Growth?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(1), pages 17-47, January.
    3. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kalaitzi, Athanasia Stylianou & Chamberlain, Trevor William, 2021. "The validity of the export-led growth hypothesis: some evidence from the GCC," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106586, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Luciano Boggio & Laura Barbieri, 2017. "International competitiveness in post-Keynesian growth theory: controversies and empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 41(1), pages 25-47.
    6. Gregory C. Reinsel & Sung K. Ahn, 1992. "Vector Autoregressive Models With Unit Roots And Reduced Rank Structure:Estimation. Likelihood Ratio Test, And Forecasting," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 353-375, July.
    7. Gulzar Ali & Zhaohua Li, 2018. "Exports-led growth or growth-led exports in the case of China and Pakistan: An empirical investigation from the ARDL and Granger causality approach," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 293-314, May.
    8. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    9. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 261-337.
    10. Dierk HERZER & Felicitas NOWAK‐LEHMANN D. & Boriss SILIVERSTOVS, 2006. "Export‐Led Growth In Chile: Assessing The Role Of Export Composition In Productivity Growth," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(3), pages 306-328, September.
    11. Athanasia S. Kalaitzi, 2018. "The Causal Effects of Trade and Technology Transfer on Human Capital and Economic Growth in the United Arab Emirates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.
    12. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2006. "New evidence on export expansion, economic growth and causality in China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 801-803.
    13. Kalaitzi, Athanasia S. & Chamberlain, Trevor W., 2020. "Merchandise exports and economic growth: multivariate time series analysis for the United Arab Emirates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103781, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Dierk Herzer, 2007. "How does trade composition affect productivity? Evidence for Chile," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 909-912.
    15. Raju GUNTUKULA, 2018. "Exports, imports and economic growth in India: Evidence from cointegration and causality analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(615), S), pages 221-230, Summer.
    16. Athanasia S. Kalaitzi & Emmanuel Cleeve, 2018. "Export-led growth in the UAE: multivariate causality between primary exports, manufactured exports and economic growth," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(3), pages 341-365, September.
    17. Yousif Khalifa Al-Yousif, 1997. "Exports and economic growth:some empirical evidence from the Arab Gulf countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 693-697.
    18. Jurgen A. Doornik, 1998. "Approximations To The Asymptotic Distributions Of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-593, December.
    19. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2002. "Export performance and economic growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 25-33, January.
    20. Subrata Ghatak & Chris Milner & Utku Utkulu, 1997. "Exports, export composition and growth : cointegration and causality evidence for Malaysia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 213-223.
    21. Trevor W. Chamberlain & Athanasia S. Kalaitzi, 2020. "Fuel-Mining Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence from the UAE," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(1), pages 119-121, February.
    22. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    23. Fayyaz Ahmad & Muhammad Umar Draz & Su-Chang Yang, 2018. "Causality nexus of exports, FDI and economic growth of the ASEAN5 economies: evidence from panel data analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 685-700, August.
    24. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    25. Kaldor, Nicholas, 1970. "The Case for Regional Policies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 337-348, November.
    26. Mohammed Ibrahim El-Sakka & Naief Hamad Al-Mutairi, 2000. "Exports and Economic Growth: The Arab Experience," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(2), pages 153-169.
    27. Judith A. Giles & Sadaf Mirza, 1999. "Some Pretesting Issues on Testing for Granger Noncausality," Econometrics Working Papers 9914, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    28. Anis Khayati, 2019. "The Effects of Oil and Non-oil Exports on Economic Growth in Bahrain," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 160-164.
    29. Khaled R.M. ELBEYDI & Abdulbaset M. HAMUDA & Vladimir GAZDA, 2010. "The Relationship between Export and Economic Growth in Libya Arab Jamahiriya," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 1(1(542)), pages 69-76, January.
    30. Athanasia Stylianou Kalaitzi & Trevor William Chamberlain, 2021. "The validity of the export-led growth hypothesis: some evidence from the GCC," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 224-245, February.
    31. Athanasia S. Kalaitzi & Trevor W. Chamberlain, 2020. "Merchandise exports and economic growth: multivariate time series analysis for the United Arab Emirates," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 163-182, January.
    32. Subrata Ghatak & Stephen Price, 1997. "Export composition and economic growth: Cointegration and causality evidence for India," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(3), pages 538-553, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kalaitzi, Athanasia Stylianou & Chamberlain, Trevor William, 2021. "The validity of the export-led growth hypothesis: some evidence from the GCC," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106586, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Athanasia S. Kalaitzi & Emmanuel Cleeve, 2018. "Export-led growth in the UAE: multivariate causality between primary exports, manufactured exports and economic growth," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(3), pages 341-365, September.
    3. Athanasia Stylianou Kalaitzi & Trevor William Chamberlain, 2020. "Fuel-Mining Exports and Growth in a Developing State: The Case of the UAE," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 300-308.
    4. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis," European Journal of Management and Business Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(1), pages 77-93, April.
    5. Athanasia S. Kalaitzi, 2018. "The Causal Effects of Trade and Technology Transfer on Human Capital and Economic Growth in the United Arab Emirates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.
    6. Kalaitzi, Athanasia & Chamberlain, Trevor W., 2019. "Further evidence on export-led growth in the United Arab Emirates: are non-oil exports or re-exports the key to economic growth?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103827, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Kalaitzi, Athanasia Stylianou & Chamberlain, Trevor William, 2020. "Fuel-mining exports and growth in a developing state: the case of the UAE," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105207, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Athanasia Stylianou Kalaitzi & Trevor W. Chamberlain, 2023. "Manufactured exports, disaggregated imports and economic growth: the case of Kuwait," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 919-940, April.
    9. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid For Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence From Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AESRI01, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    10. Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2021. "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid For Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence From Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AERI0121, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised 25 Aug 2021.
    11. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    12. N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid for Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AESRI-2021-02, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Jan 2021.
    13. Kalaitzi Athanasia S. & Chamberlain Trevor W., 2019. "Further Evidence on Export-Led Growth in the United Arab Emirates: Are Non-Oil Exports or Re-Exports the Key to Economic Growth?," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 1-15, August.
    14. Kalaitzi, Athanasia S. & Chamberlain, Trevor W., 2020. "Merchandise exports and economic growth: multivariate time series analysis for the United Arab Emirates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103781, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. HAZMAN, Samsudin & OMAR, Khatijah & ABD HALIMB, Abi sofian & SYAZWAN SHAMSUDIN, Muhammad Saiful, 2021. "Export Led Growth Via Intra-Regional Trading An Econometric Analysis Of Asean, Eu, Nafta, Mercosur And Comesa," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 21(2), pages 5-28.
    16. Dierk HERZER & Felicitas NOWAK‐LEHMANN D. & Boriss SILIVERSTOVS, 2006. "Export‐Led Growth In Chile: Assessing The Role Of Export Composition In Productivity Growth," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(3), pages 306-328, September.
    17. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2013. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 39-60, August.
    18. Abo-Zaid Salem M, 2011. "The Trade-Growth Relationship in Israel Revisited: Evidence from Annual Data, 1960-2004," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 63-93, February.
    19. P. J. Dawson, 2005. "The export-income relationship: the case of India," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 5(1), pages 16-29, January.
    20. Fugarolas, Guadalupe & Mañalich, Isis & Matesanz, David, 2007. "Are Exports Causing Growth? Evidence On International Trade Expansion In Cuba, 1960-2004," MPRA Paper 6323, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; non-primary exports; Granger causality; UAE; Emirates Foundation - LSE Academic Collaboration with Arab Universities; CUP deal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce
    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:114948. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.