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Causality nexus of exports, FDI and economic growth of the ASEAN5 economies: evidence from panel data analysis

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  • Fayyaz Ahmad
  • Muhammad Umar Draz
  • Su-Chang Yang

Abstract

This paper analyzes the causal relationships between exports, FDI and economic growth among the ASEAN5 countries. We have used a three-stage procedure based on unit root, co-integration and causality tests applied to the panel data from 1981 to 2013. The results reveal that there is a bi-directional causal relationship between FDI and growth in the long run, while there is a unidirectional causal relationship from FDI to exports in the short run. Our results also confirm that the export-led growth (ELG) and FDI-led growth hypotheses hold true in the long and short run. To reinforce the FDI inflows, authorities should continue the progressive reduction of barriers, and increase the sophistication of quality exports to compete in the global market. This paper is the first of its kind to analyze the role of both FDI and exports in the ASEAN5 economies using panel analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Fayyaz Ahmad & Muhammad Umar Draz & Su-Chang Yang, 2018. "Causality nexus of exports, FDI and economic growth of the ASEAN5 economies: evidence from panel data analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 685-700, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:27:y:2018:i:6:p:685-700
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2018.1426035
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    Cited by:

    1. Niaz Morshed & Mohammad Razib Hossain, 2022. "Causality analysis of the determinants of FDI in Bangladesh: fresh evidence from VAR, VECM and Granger causality approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-28, July.
    2. Mohammad Razib Hossain, 2021. "Inward foreign direct investment in Bangladesh: Do we need to rethink about some of the macro-level quantitative determinants?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 1-23, March.
    3. Kalaitzi Athanasia Stylianou & Kherfi Samer & Alrousan Sahel & Katsaiti Marina-Selini, 2022. "Are Non-Primary Exports the Source for Further Economic Growth in the UAE?," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 29-51, April.
    4. Amjad Taha & Mucahit Aydin & Taiwo Temitope Lasisi & Festus Victor Bekun & Narayan Sethi, 2023. "Toward a sustainable growth path in Arab economies: an extension of classical growth model," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, December.
    5. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid For Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence From Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AESRI01, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    6. N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid for Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AESRI-2021-02, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Jan 2021.
    7. Kalaitzi, Athanasia Stylianou & Chamberlain, Trevor William, 2021. "The validity of the export-led growth hypothesis: some evidence from the GCC," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106586, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Njangang, Henri & Nawo, Larissa, 2018. "Relevance of governance quality on the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth: new evidence from African countries," MPRA Paper 90136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Klimis Vogiatzoglou, 2019. "Export Composition and Long-run Economic Growth Impact: A Cointegration Analysis for ASEAN ‘Latecomer’ Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 168-191, May.
    10. Milin Ioana Anda & Bușan Gabriela & Ecobici Nicolae & Abdul Rehman, 2023. "Economic Growth Drivers in Romania: Evidence from a NARDL Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.
    11. Mohammad Anamul Haque & Syed Mehmood Raza Shah & Muhammad Usman Arshad, 2022. "Sustainable Economic Growth and FDI Inflow: A Comparative Panel Econometric Analysis of Low-Income and Middle-Income Nations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-14, November.
    12. Kalaitzi, Athanasia S. & Chamberlain, Trevor W., 2020. "Merchandise exports and economic growth: multivariate time series analysis for the United Arab Emirates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103781, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Tang, Chor Foon & Abosedra, Salah, 2019. "Logistics performance, exports, and growth: Evidence from Asian economies," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Abdul Rehman & Hengyun Ma & Sufyan Ullah Khan & Muntasir Murshed & Muhammad Kamran Khan & Fayyaz Ahmad & Muhammad Zubair Chishti, 2023. "Do Exports of Communication Technology, Food, Manufacturing, and Foreign Investments Foster Economic Growth in Pakistan? an Exploration From Asymmetric Technique," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(4), pages 4238-4255, December.
    15. Alena Vagaská & Miroslav Gombár & Antonín Korauš, 2022. "Mathematical Modeling and Nonlinear Optimization in Determining the Minimum Risk of Legalization of Income from Criminal Activities in the Context of EU Member Countries," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-25, December.
    16. Yapatake Kossele Thales Pacific & Ngaba Mbai-Akem Gabriella Magalie, 2023. "One Bad Turn Deserves Another: How Energy Production, Financial Instability, and Political Governance Crisis Sustain the Decline of FDI Inflows in the Central African Republic," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(2), pages 831-853, June.
    17. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis," European Journal of Management and Business Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(1), pages 77-93, April.
    18. Radovan Kastratović, 2023. "Exporting decision of agricultural firms: The role of foreign direct investment," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 960-984, October.
    19. Nan Li & Lipeng Sun & Xiao Luo & Rong Kang & Mingde Jia, 2019. "Foreign Trade Structure, Opening Degree and Economic Growth in Western China," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-14, June.
    20. Fayyaz Ahmad & Muhammad Umar Draz & Lijuan Su & Ilhan Ozturk & Abdul Rauf & Shahid Ali, 2019. "Impact of FDI Inflows on Poverty Reduction in the ASEAN and SAARC Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-24, May.
    21. Abdul Sattar & Muhammad Noshab Hussain & Muhammad Ilyas, 2022. "An Impact Evaluation of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on Environmental Degradation," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, March.
    22. Radovan Kastratović, 2020. "The impact of foreign direct investment on host country exports: A meta‐analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(12), pages 3142-3183, December.
    23. Mounir Belloumi & Atef Alshehry, 2020. "The Impact of International Trade on Sustainable Development in Saudi Arabia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-18, July.
    24. Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2021. "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid For Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence From Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AERI0121, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised 25 Aug 2021.

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