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Discounted optimal stopping problems in continuous hidden Markov models

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  • Gapeev, Pavel V.

Abstract

We study a two-dimensional discounted optimal stopping problem related to the pricing of perpetual commodity equities in a model of financial markets in which the behaviour of the underlying asset price follows a generalized geometric Brownian motion and the dynamics of the convenience yield are described by an unobservable continuous-time Markov chain with two states. It is shown that the optimal time of exercise is the first time at which the commodity spot price paid in return to the fixed coupon rate hits a lower stochastic boundary being a monotone function of the running value of the filtering estimate of the state of the chain. We rigorously prove that the optimal stopping boundary is regular for the stopping region relative to the resulting two-dimensional diffusion process and the value function is continuously differentiable with respect to the both variables. It is verified by means of a change-of-variable formula with local time on surfaces that the value function and the boundary are determined as a unique solution of the associated parabolic-type free-boundary problem. We also give a closed-form solution to the optimal stopping problem for the case of an observable Markov chain.

Suggested Citation

  • Gapeev, Pavel V., 2022. "Discounted optimal stopping problems in continuous hidden Markov models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110493, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:110493
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/110493/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pavel V. Gapeev, 2012. "Pricing Of Perpetual American Options In A Model With Partial Information," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-21.
    2. John Buffington & Robert J. Elliott, 2002. "American Options With Regime Switching," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(05), pages 497-514.
    3. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    4. Z. Jiang & M. R. Pistorius, 2008. "On perpetual American put valuation and first-passage in a regime-switching model with jumps," Papers 0803.2302, arXiv.org.
    5. Pavel V. Gapeev, 2012. "Pricing Of Perpetual American Options In A Model With Partial Information," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Matheus R Grasselli & Lane P Hughston (ed.), Finance at Fields, chapter 14, pages 327-347, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Broadie, Mark & Detemple, Jerome, 1995. "American Capped Call Options on Dividend-Paying Assets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 161-191.
    7. Zhengjun Jiang & Martijn Pistorius, 2008. "On perpetual American put valuation and first-passage in a regime-switching model with jumps," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 331-355, July.
    8. Peter Carr & Robert Jarrow & Ravi Myneni, 2008. "Alternative Characterizations Of American Put Options," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 5, pages 85-103, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Robert J. Elliott & Craig A. Wilson, 2007. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Hidden Markov Setting," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Rogemar S. Mamon & Robert J. Elliott (ed.), Hidden Markov Models in Finance, chapter 2, pages 15-30, Springer.
    10. Gapeev, P.V. & Peskir, G., 2006. "The Wiener disorder problem with finite horizon," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 116(12), pages 1770-1791, December.
    11. Jean-Paul Décamps & Thomas Mariotti & Stéphane Villeneuve, 2005. "Investment Timing Under Incomplete Information," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 472-500, May.
    12. Goran Peskir, 2005. "On The American Option Problem," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 169-181, January.
    13. S. D. Jacka, 1991. "Optimal Stopping and the American Put," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 1-14, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Felix Dammann & Giorgio Ferrari, 2023. "Optimal execution with multiplicative price impact and incomplete information on the return," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 713-768, July.
    2. Felix Dammann & Giorgio Ferrari, 2022. "Optimal Execution with Multiplicative Price Impact and Incomplete Information on the Return," Papers 2202.10414, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    3. Benjamín Vallejo-Jiménez & Francisco Venegas-Martínez & Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & José Álvarez-García, 2022. "Simulating Portfolio Decisions under Uncertainty When the Risky Asset and Short Rate Are Modulated by an Inhomogeneous and Asset-Dependent Markov Chain," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-14, August.
    4. Dammann, Felix & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2022. "Optimal Execution with Multiplicative Price Impact and Incomplete Information on the Return," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 663, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Discounted optimal stopping problem; generalised geometric Brownian motion; continuous-time Markov chain; filtering estimate (Wonham filter); two-dimensional diffusion process; parabolic-type free-boundary problem; change-of-variable formula with local time on surfaces; perpetual commodity equities and defautable bonds; T&F deal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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