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Depletion of Natural Resources and Long-term Perspectives of the Russian Economy

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Author Info
Eismont Oleg ()
Kuralbaeva Karlygash ()
Abstract

A long-term analysis of the economic development of a resource-exporting country is presented. Two kinds of models have been used: single-sector and two-to-three sector models. Within the single-sector model, the effects of the uncertainty of world resource prices, of the constraints of natural resources on export capacities, and of the impact of foreign assets on the economy of a resource-exporting country have been analyzed. Two- and three-sector models were used to study the effects of the positive externality resulting from the accumulation of knowledge in the manufacturing sector, and of resource depletion. The main results obtained are as follows. An increasing world natural resource price leads, in the long-term perspective, to decreasing rates of economic growth of a resource-exporting country. The higher the share of a natural resource sectors the lower the equilibrium growth rate of GDP of a resource-rich country.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS in its series EERC Working Paper Series with number 99-07e.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 29 Nov 1999
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Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:99-07e

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Related research
Keywords: Dutch disease; endogenous economic growth;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Mulligan, Casey B & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1993. "Transitional Dynamics in Two-Sector Models of Endogenous Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 739-73, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1990. "Agricultural Productivity, Comparative Advantage, and Economic Growth," Discussion Papers 934, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Robert M. Solow & Frederic Y. Wan, 1976. "Extraction Costs in the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 359-370, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Geoffrey Heal, 1976. "The Relationship Between Price and Extraction Cost for a Resource with a Backstop Technology," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 371-378, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gomulka, S. & Lane, J., 1997. "Recession dynamics following an external price shock in a transition economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 177-203, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Pindyck, Robert S, 1981. " The Optimal Production of an Exhaustible Resource When Price is Exogenous and Stochastic," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 83(2), pages 277-88.
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  7. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Farzin, Y H, 1992. "The Time Path of Scarcity Rent in the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 813-30, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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