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Indicators of corporate default : an EU based empirical study

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  • Aaro Hazak
  • Kadri Männasoo

Abstract

The present paper contributes to the research on the indicators that provide a warning of company failure by employing micro and macro variables within a framework of survival analysis using a sample of 0.4 million companies from the European Union (EU). The sensitivity of the results is checked using two complementary event definitions - bankruptcy and negative equity. Our results imply that the baseline hazard of a default is a U-shaped function of the time the company has survived. High leverage and a low return on assets appear to be strong predictors of failure. Macroeconomic variables give mixed evidence for old and new member states as well as for the two default definitions

Suggested Citation

  • Aaro Hazak & Kadri Männasoo, 2007. "Indicators of corporate default : an EU based empirical study," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-10, Bank of Estonia, revised 04 Sep 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2007-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Meng-Meng Tan & Dong-Ling Xu & Jian-Bo Yang, 2022. "Corporate Failure Risk Assessment for Knowledge-Intensive Services Using the Evidential Reasoning Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-29, March.
    2. Alessandro Zeli, 2014. "The financial distress indicators trend in Italy: an analysis of medium-size enterprises," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(2), pages 199-221, December.
    3. Karin Jõeveer, 2016. "Does Bank Failure Affect Client Firms? Micro Evidence from Estonia," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 15(3), pages 310-332, December.
    4. O'Brien, Eoin & Stuart, Rebecca, 2014. "Corporate Liquidations in Ireland," Economic Letters 06/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Mari Avarmaa & Aaro Hazak & Kadri Männasoo, 2011. "Capital structure formation in multinational and local companies in the Baltic States," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 125-146, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    corporate default; bankruptcy; survival analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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