IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/edj/ceauch/194.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Detection of Breakpoints in Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Viviana Fernandez

Abstract

Financial time-series may exhibit breakpoints in unconditional variance due, possibly, to institutional changes. Accounting for such shifts is essential to risk management, forecasting, and hedging. In this article, we test for the presence of structural breaks in volatility by two approaches: the Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) algorithm and wavelet analysis. We present a series of examples in which we compare both methods. Specifically, we look at the effect of the outbreak of the Asian crisis and the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 on Emerging Asia, Europe, Latin America and North America’s stock markets. In addition, we focus on the behavior of interest rates in Chile after the Central Bank switched its monetary policy interest rate from an inflation-indexed to a nominal target in August 2001. Our estimation results show that the number of shifts detected by the two methods is substantially reduced when filtering out the data for both conditional heteroskedasticity and serial correlation.

Suggested Citation

  • Viviana Fernandez, 2004. "Detection of Breakpoints in Volatility," Documentos de Trabajo 194, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:edj:ceauch:194
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cea-uchile.cl/wp-content/uploads/doctrab/ASOCFILE120040819095013.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramsey James B. & Lampart Camille, 1998. "The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets: Expenditure and Income," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, April.
    2. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 33-55, March.
    3. Felipe Morandé, 2002. "Nominalización de la Tasa de Política Monetaria. Debate y Consecuencias," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 39(117), pages 239-252.
    4. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    5. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-234, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Morales, Lucía & Gassie, Esmeralda, 2011. "Structural breaks and financial volatility: Lessons from BRIC countries," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? – Prospects for Trade and Growth 13, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
    2. Miroslava Zavadska & Lucía Morales & Joseph Coughlan, 2018. "The Lead–Lag Relationship between Oil Futures and Spot Prices—A Literature Review," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, October.
    3. Luo, Jiawen & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Ji, Qiang & Klein, Tony, 2023. "Co-volatility and asymmetric transmission of risks between the global oil and China's futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    4. Shailesh Rastogi & Chaitaly Athaley, 2019. "Volatility Integration in Spot, Futures and Options Markets: A Regulatory Perspective," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, June.
    5. Mala Raghavan & Jonathan Dark & Elizabeth Ann Maharaj, 2010. "Impact of capital control measures on the Malaysian stock market," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(2), pages 116-127, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernandez, Viviana, 2006. "The impact of major global events on volatility shifts: Evidence from the Asian crisis and 9/11," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 79-97, March.
    2. Viviana Fernandez, 2007. "Stock Market Turmoil: Worldwide Effects of Middle East Conflicts," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 58-102, June.
    3. Viviana Fernandez, 2005. "Structural Breakpoints in Volatility in International Markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp076, IIIS.
    4. Fernandez, Viviana, 2007. "A postcard from the past: The behavior of U.S. stock markets during 1871–1938," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 386(1), pages 267-282.
    5. Andrew Stuart Duncan & Guangling“dave” Liu, 2009. "Modelling South African Currency Crises As Structural Changes In The Volatility Of The Rand," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 363-379, September.
    6. Fernandez, Viviana, 2008. "The war on terror and its impact on the long-term volatility of financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-26.
    7. Dilip Kumar, 2016. "Sudden changes in crude oil price volatility: an application of extreme value volatility estimator," American Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3/4), pages 215-234.
    8. David McMillan & Mark Wohar, 2011. "Structural breaks in volatility: the case of UK sector returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(15), pages 1079-1093.
    9. Kumar, Dilip, 2015. "Sudden changes in extreme value volatility estimator: Modeling and forecasting with economic significance analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 354-371.
    10. Viviana Fernandez & Brian M Lucey, 2006. "Portfolio management implications of volatility shifts: Evidence from simulated data," Documentos de Trabajo 219, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    11. Covarrubias, Guillermo & Ewing, Bradley T. & Hein, Scott E. & Thompson, Mark A., 2006. "Modeling volatility changes in the 10-year Treasury," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 369(2), pages 737-744.
    12. Fernandez, Viviana & Lucey, Brian M., 2007. "Portfolio management under sudden changes in volatility and heterogeneous investment horizons," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 375(2), pages 612-624.
    13. Athanasia Gavala & Nikolay Gospodinov & Deming Jiang, 2006. "Forecasting volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 381-400.
    14. Altaf Muhammad & Zhang Shuguang, 2015. "Impact Of Structural Shifts on Variance Persistence in Asymmetric Garch Models: Evidence From Emerging Asian and European Markets," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 63(1), pages 57-70, March.
    15. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq, 2016. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock market under structural breaks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-23.
    16. Karakatsani Nektaria V & Bunn Derek W., 2010. "Fundamental and Behavioural Drivers of Electricity Price Volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 1-42, September.
    17. Novkovska, Blagica & Serafimovic, Gordana, 2018. "Recognizing The Vulnerability Of Generation Z To Economic And Social Risks," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 9(1), pages 29-37.
    18. Malik, Farooq, 2021. "Volatility spillover between exchange rate and stock returns under volatility shifts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 605-613.
    19. Wei Liu & Bruce Morley, 2009. "Volatility Forecasting in the Hang Seng Index using the GARCH Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 16(1), pages 51-63, March.
    20. Ruipeng Liu & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Do Bivariate Multifractal Models Improve Volatility Forecasting in Financial Time Series? An Application to Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Working Papers 201728, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:edj:ceauch:194. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceuclcl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.