This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Portfolio management implications of volatility shifts: Evidence from simulated data

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Viviana Fernandez
Brian M Lucey ()

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Based on weekly data of the Dow Jones Country Titans, the CBT-municipal bond, spot and futures prices of commodities for the period 1992-2005, we analyze the implications for portfolio management of accounting for conditional heteroskedasticity and structural breaks in long-term volatility. In doing so, we first proceed to utilize the ICSS algorithm to detect volatility shifts, and incorporate that information into PGARCH models fitted to the returns series. At the next stage, we simulate returns series and compute a wavelet-based value at risk, which takes into consideration the investor’s time horizon. We repeat the same procedure for artificial data generated from distribution functions fitted to the returns by a semi-parametric procedure, which accounts for fat tails. Our estimation results show that neglecting GARCH effects and volatility shifts may lead us to overestimate financial risk at different time horizons. In addition, we conclude that investors benefit from holding commodities as their low or even negative correlation with stock indices contribute to portfolio diversification.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.webmanager.cl/prontus_cea/cea_2006/site/asocfile/ASOCFILE120060522101433.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 219.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:edj:ceauch:219

Contact details of provider:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Giot, Pierre & Laurent, Sebastien, 2004. "Modelling daily Value-at-Risk using realized volatility and ARCH type models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 379-398, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
  3. Shinn-Juh Lin & Maxwell Stevenson, 2001. "Wavelet Analysis of the Cost-of-Carry Model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 5(1), pages 87-102. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Viviana Fernandez, 2005. "The International CAPM and a wavelet-based decomposition of Value at Risk," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp075, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Enrico Capobianco, 2004. "Multiscale Analysis of Stock Index Return Volatility," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 219-237, 04. [Downloadable!]
  6. Fernandez, Viviana, 2006. "The impact of major global events on volatility shifts: Evidence from the Asian crisis and 9/11," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 79-97, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W. J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
  8. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Ane, Thierry, 2006. "An analysis of the flexibility of Asymmetric Power GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 1293-1311, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Fernandez, Viviana, 2006. "The CAPM and value at risk at different time-scales," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 203-219. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ramsey, James B. & Zhang, Zhifeng, 1997. "The analysis of foreign exchange data using waveform dictionaries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 341-372, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Each page is provided with a technical contact, in case something is not right with the supplied information. See under "publisher info".

This page was last updated on 2008-9-30.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.