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Latin America in the Twentieth Century: Stagnation, then Collapse

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  • Andy Neumeyer
  • Hugo Hopenhayn

Abstract

Most Latin American countries experienced their last peak in output per capita relative to the United States’ between 1971 and 1982. Prior to this peak per capita output was rapidly catching up to the developed world. Twenty years after the peak the average country’s relative per capita output was 68% of its peak level. A growth accounting exercise shows that between 1960 and 1985 the contribution of physical capital to growth, at 74%, was more than twice the world’s average. There is an investment/productivity puzzle since capital accumulation was among the highest in the world and productivity growth one of the lowest. Import Substitution Industrialization and targeted investment subsidies may be the key to understanding Latin America’s lack of development

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File URL: http://repec.org/esLATM04/up.28921.1082602077.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 326.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:326

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Keywords: Stagnation; Growth; Latin America;

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  1. José De Gregorio & Jong-Wha Lee, 1999. "Economic Growth in Latin America: Sources and Prospects," Documentos de Trabajo 66, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  2. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
  3. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 1997. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," NBER Working Papers 5978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Cole, Harold L. & Ohanian, Lee E. & Riascos, Alvaro & Schmitz, James Jr, 2005. "Latin America in the rearview mirror," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 69-107, January.
  2. Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira & Samuel de Abreu Pessôa & Fernando A. Veloso, 2005. "The Evolution of International Output Differences (1960-2000): From Factors to Productivity," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2005-11, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
  3. Matias Busso & Lucia Madrigal & Carmen Pages-Serra, 2012. "Productivity and Resource Misallocation in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4753, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  4. John W. Dawson & Mark C. Strazicich, 2006. "Time Series Tests of Income Convergence with Two Structural Breaks: An Update and Extension," Working Papers 06-01, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.

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