Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using the Markov-Switching ARCH Model
AbstractThis paper analyzes the application of the Markov-switching ARCH model (Hamilton and Susmel, 1994) in improving value-at-risk (VaR) forecast. By considering a mixture of normal distributions with varying variances over different time and regimes, we find that the â€œspurious high persistenceâ€ found in the GARCH model is adjusted. Under relative performance and hypothesis-testing evaluations, the VaR forecasts derived from the Markov-switching ARCH model are preferred to alternative parametric and nonparametric VaR models that only consider time-varying volatility. JEL classification: C22, C52, G28. Keywords: Value-at-Risk, Switching-regime ARCH models.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings with number 715.
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Value-at-Risk; Switching-regime ARCH models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-10-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2004-10-30 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FIN-2004-10-30 (Finance)
- NEP-RMG-2004-10-30 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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