Tracking Brazilian Exchange Rate Volatility
AbstractThis paper examines the relation between dollar-real exchange rate volatility implied in option prices and subsequent realized volatility. It investigates whether implied volatilities contain information about volatility over the remaining life of the option which is not present in past returns. Using GMM estimation consistent with telescoping observations evidence suggests that implied volatilities give superior forecasts of realized volatility if compared to GARCH(p,q), and Moving Average predictors, and that econometric models forecasts do not provide significant incremental information to that contained in implied volatilities.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings with number 487.
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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implied volatility; telescoping observations; GMM;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-10-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2004-10-30 (Finance)
- NEP-IFN-2004-10-30 (International Finance)
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