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Testing for Serial Correlation, Spatial Autocorrelation and Random Effects

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  • Won Koh
  • Byoung Cheol Jung
  • Badi H. Baltagi
  • Seuck Heun Song

Abstract

This paper considers a spatial panel data regression model with serial correlation on each spatial unit over time as well as spatial dependence between the spatial units at each point in time. In addition, the model allows for heterogeneity across the spatial units using random effects. The paper then derives several Lagrange Multiplier tests for this panel data regression model including a joint test for serial correlation, spatial autocorrelation and random effects. These tests draw upon two strands of earlier work. The first is the LM tests for the spatial error correlation model discussed in Anselin and Bera (1998) and in the panel data context by Baltagi, Song and Koh (2003). The second is the LM tests for the error component panel data model with serial correlation derived by Baltagi and Li (1995). Hence the joint LM test derived in this paper encompasses those derived in both strands of earlier works. In fact, in the context of our general model, the earlier LM tests become marginal LM tests that ignore either serial correlation over time or spatial error correlation. The paper then derives conditional LM and LR tests that do not ignore these correlations and contrast them with their marginal LM and LR counterparts. The small sample performance of these tests is investigated using Monte Carlo experiments. As expected, ignoring any correlation when it is significant can lead to misleading inference

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings with number 338.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:338

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Keywords: panel data; spatial correlation;

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References

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  1. Baltagi, Badi H. & Song, Seuck Heun & Koh, Won, 2003. "Testing panel data regression models with spatial error correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 123-150, November.
  2. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
  3. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1999. "A Generalized Moments Estimator for the Autoregressive Parameter in a Spatial Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 509-33, May.
  4. Magnus, Jan R., 1982. "Multivariate error components analysis of linear and nonlinear regression models by maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 239-285, August.
  5. Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R., . "The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP -412, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  6. H. Kelejian, Harry & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2001. "On the asymptotic distribution of the Moran I test statistic with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 219-257, September.
  7. Case, Anne C, 1991. "Spatial Patterns in Household Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 953-65, July.
  8. Kathleen P. Bell & Nancy E. Bockstael, 2000. "Applying the Generalized-Moments Estimation Approach to Spatial Problems Involving Microlevel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 72-82, February.
  9. Magnus, J.R., 1982. "Multivariate error components analysis of linear and nonlinear regression models by maximum likelihood," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-153211, Tilburg University.
  10. Boozer, Michael A., 1997. "Econometric Analysis of Panel Data Badi H. Baltagi Wiley, 1995," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 747-754, October.
  11. Nerlove, Marc, 1971. "Further Evidence on the Estimation of Dynamic Economic Relations from a Time Series of Cross Sections," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(2), pages 359-82, March.
  12. Baltagi, Badi H. & Li, Qi, 1995. "Testing AR(1) against MA(1) disturbances in an error component model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 133-151, July.
  13. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1994. "Public-Sector Capital and the Productivity Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 12-21, February.
  14. Kelejian, Harry H. & Robinson, Dennis P., 1992. "Spatial autocorrelation : A new computationally simple test with an application to per capita county police expenditures," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 317-331, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Caporin Massimiliano & Paruolo Paolo, 2005. "Multivariate ARCH with spatial effects for stock sector and size," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0509, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
  2. Caporin Massimiliano & Paruolo Paolo, 2005. "Spatial effects in multivariate ARCH," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0501, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.

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