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Confidence bounds for the extremum determined by a quadratic regression

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  • Jenny Lye
  • Joe Hirschberg

Abstract

A quadratic function is frequently used in regression to infer the existence of an extremum in a relationship. Examples abound in fields such as economics, epidemiology and environmental science. However, most applications provide no formal test of the extremum. Here we compare the Delta method and the Fieller method in typical applications and perform a Monte Carlo study of the coverage of these confidence bounds. We find that unless the parameter on the squared term is estimated with great precision, the Fieller confidence interval may posses dramatically better coverage than the Delta method

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File URL: http://repec.org/esAUSM04/up.11216.1077841765.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings with number 217.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:217

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Keywords: Turning Point; Fieller interval; U-shaped;

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  1. Gallant, A. Ronald, 1981. "On the bias in flexible functional forms and an essentially unbiased form : The fourier flexible form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-245, February.
  2. Murphy, Kevin M & Welch, Finis, 1990. "Empirical Age-Earnings Profiles," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(2), pages 202-29, April.
  3. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
  4. Hsing, Yu, 1996. "Estimating the laffer curve and policy implications," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 395-401.
  5. Barnett, William A, 1983. "New Indices of Money Supply and the Flexible Laurent Demand System," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(1), pages 7-23, January.
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