IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ebg/essewp/dr-15004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Relation entre le prix du pétrole et les cours boursiers des grandes compagnies pétrolières mondiales

Author

Listed:

Abstract

La recherche explique comment le cours des actions des compagnies pétrolières dépend du prix à terme du pétrole. La modélisation est appliquée aux principales compagnies pétrolières Shell: Exxon Mobil, BP, Total et Chevron. La recherche est originale car elle porte sur les relations à court et long terme à partir de modèles à correction d'erreur vectorielle (VECM) avec changements de régime. La modélisation structurelle, entre le cours des actions des compagnies pétrolières et le prix à terme du pétrole, est menée à partir de modèles de d’autorégression vectorielle (VAR) en lien avec la cointégration. La recherche est conduite en utilisant des données mensuelles de novembre 1989 à juin 2011. La stationnarité des séries temporelles est testée avec les tests de DickeyFuller, PhilipsPerron et KPSS. Les approches d’EngleGranger et Johansen ne permettent pas de trouver une relation de long terme sur toute la période. Cependant, l’approche de Bai et Perron permet d’identifier 5 changements de régime et de modéliser des relations de cointégration différentes sur ces souspériodes. Afin d'identifier les relations de cointégration à changements de régime, la méthode Gregory et Hansen est utilisée et les résultats montrent une cointégration avec des changements de régime. Les VECM associés à la cointégration avec changements de régime sont estimés. Le VECM permet de comprendre la dynamique sur le court terme. Puis l'analyse économique et financière est faite. L’analyse de choc est mise en oeuvre avec la fonction de réponse impulsionnelle. De plus, le test ARCHLM montre l'existence d'un modèle ARCH vectoriel. La recherche indique comment les dernières techniques de cointégration sont utiles notamment en incluant des ruptures structurelles endogènes menant à des évolutions de régimes. D'autres recherches seront effectuées pour estimer si l'on peut couvrir les risques de fluctuations des prix des matières premières en utilisant les cours boursiers des entreprises cotées dans des marchés beaucoup plus liquides. Cette modélisation sera complétée par la construction de modèles de court terme incorporant des changements de régime avec l’approche markovienne MSVAR et MSVECM.

Suggested Citation

  • Declerck , Francis & Indjehagopian , Jean-Pierre & Bellocq , Flavien, 2015. "Relation entre le prix du pétrole et les cours boursiers des grandes compagnies pétrolières mondiales," ESSEC Working Papers WP1504, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-15004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal-essec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01119857/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai, 1994. "Least Squares Estimation Of A Shift In Linear Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 453-472, September.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Tillmann, Peter, 2003. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 27/2003, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    4. Zeileis, Achim & Leisch, Friedrich & Hornik, Kurt & Kleiber, Christian, 2002. "strucchange: An R Package for Testing for Structural Change in Linear Regression Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 7(i02).
    5. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    6. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    8. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2002. "A Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 233-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francis Declerck & Jean-Pierre Indjehagopian & Flavien Bellocq, 2015. "Relationship Between Oil Prices and Stock Prices of Major Oil Companies [Relation entre le prix du pétrole et les cours boursiers des grandes compagnies pétrolières mondiales]," Working Papers hal-01119857, HAL.
    2. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    3. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    4. Karakotsios, Achillefs & Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Kroupis, Nikolaos, 2021. "The dynamic linkages between food prices and oil prices. Does asymmetry matter?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    5. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Environmental Kuznet’s curve for India: Evidence from tests for cointegration with unknown structuralbreaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 509-515.
    6. Kumar, Saten & Webber, Don J. & Fargher, Scott, 2013. "Money demand stability: A case study of Nigeria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 978-991.
    7. Esra N. Kılcı & Burcu Kıran Baygın, 2019. "Analysis of the Relationship between Real Effective Exchange Rate, Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio and Return on Equity: Evidence from Turkey," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 7(2), pages 319-332, December.
    8. Mylonidis, Nikolaos & Stamopoulou, Ioanna, 2011. "The role of monetary policy in managing the euro - dollar exchange rate," MPRA Paper 29291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. M. Dolores Gadea & Eva Pardos & Claudia Perez-Fornies, 2004. "A Long-Run Analysis Of Defence Spending In The Nato Countries (1960-99)," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 231-249.
    10. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2020. "Multifractal Analysis of Market Efficiency across Structural Breaks: Implications for the Adaptive Market Hypothesis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, October.
    11. Boetel, Brenda L. & Liu, Donald J., 2008. "Incorporating Structural Changes in Agricultural and Food Price Analysis: An Application to the U.S. Beef and Pork Sectors," Working Papers 44076, University of Minnesota, The Food Industry Center.
    12. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 944, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2013. "The Spanish term structure of interest rates revisited: Cointegration with multiple structural breaks, 1974–2010," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 24-34.
    14. Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2008. "The turning black tide: energy prices and the Canadian dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 737-759, August.
    15. Rebeca Jiménez‐Rodríguez & Amalia Morales‐Zumaquero, 2020. "Impact of commodity prices on exchange rates in commodity‐exporting countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1868-1906, July.
    16. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    17. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2017. "Dynamics of crude oil and gold price post 2008 global financial crisis – New evidence from threshold vector error-correction model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 358-365.
    18. Abhijit Sharma & Kelvin G Balcombe & Iain M Fraser, 2009. "Non-renewable resource prices: Structural breaks and long term trends," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 805-819.
    19. Ketenci, Natalya, 2015. "Capital mobility in Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 386-403.
    20. Tarlok Singh, 2017. "Are Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries Sustainable? Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-64, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    marchés à terme; changements structurels multiples; VAR; cointégration; pétrole; prix à terme du pétrole; cours boursier des compagnies pétrolières; modèle à changement de régime markovien;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-15004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sophie Magnanou (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.