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Impact of US Quantitative Easing Policy on Emerging Asia

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  • Peter J. Morgan

    (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI))

Abstract

The adoption of quantitative easing (QE) policy by the United States (US) Federal Reserve Bank since early 2009 has aroused widespread concerns in Asia and elsewhere regarding its possible impact in terms of the weakening of the US dollar and stimulating capital outflows to emerging economies that might increase inflationary pressures in them. This report investigates possible impacts of US quantitative easing policy on Asian economies and financial markets. Our basic approach is to take the period of November 2009–October 2010, when no quantitative easing took place, as a baseline period against which we can compare the effects of quantitative easing on monetary flows during the “QE1†and “QE2†periods. We estimate that about 40% of the increase in the US monetary base in the QE1 period leaked out in the form of increased gross private capital outflows and about one-third leaked out during the first two quarters of the QE2 period. An excess private financial capital inflow to Emerging Asia of $9 billion per quarter was estimated for the first two quarters of the QE2 period, which was relatively consistent with the estimated amounts of the excess increases in foreign exchange reserves and the monetary base in the region during that period. However, this amount is small, and hence was unlikely to have a significant impact on financial markets, economic activity or inflation. We also investigate the impacts of QE policy on regional bond yields and exchange rates using event window analysis, and find that the greatest impacts were a stronger Korean won and lower bond yields in Indonesia.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter J. Morgan, 2011. "Impact of US Quantitative Easing Policy on Emerging Asia," Finance Working Papers 23215, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:eab:financ:23215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    2. Joseph E. Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian P. Sack, 2011. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(May), pages 41-59.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Mariko Tanaka, 2017. "The Impacts of Emerging Asia on Global Financial Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2725-2743, December.
    2. Guerello, Chiara & Tronzano, Marco, 2020. "“Global factors, international spillovers, and the term structure of interest rates: New evidence for Asian Countries”," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Mariko Tanaka & Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2019. "Spillover Effects of Asian Financial Markets on the Global Markets," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 15(1), pages 151-174, July.
    4. Brana, Sophie & Prat, Stéphanie, 2016. "The effects of global excess liquidity on emerging stock market returns: Evidence from a panel threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 26-34.
    5. Kawai, Masahiro, 2015. "International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: US Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing and Bank of Japan's Quantitative and Qualitative Easing," ADBI Working Papers 512, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. Stephen Anthony & Hamid Yahyaei, 2022. "Bringing Credibility Back to Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 41(3), pages 276-295, September.
    7. Matthew S. Yiu & Sahminan Sahminan, 2017. "Global Liquidity, Capital Inflows and House Prices in ASEAN Economies," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 105-126.
    8. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Mariko Tanaka, 2017. "The Impacts of Emerging Asia on Global Financial Markets," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1050, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    9. Woon Gyu Choi & Byongju Lee & Taesu Kang & Geun-Young Kim, 2016. "Divergent EME Responses to Global and Domestic Monetary Policy Shocks," Working Papers 2016-15, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    10. Mishra, Ajay Kumar & Parikh, Bhavik & Spahr, Ronald W., 2020. "Stock market liquidity, funding liquidity, financial crises and quantitative easing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 456-478.
    11. Ulrich Volz & Ansgar Belke & Irina Dubova, 2017. "Bond Yield Spillovers from Major Advanced Economies to Emerging Asia," Working Papers 203, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    12. Choi, Woon Gyu & Kang, Taesu & Kim, Geun-Young & Lee, Byongju, 2017. "Divergent Emerging Market Economy Responses to Global and Domestic Monetary Policy Shocks," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 532, Asian Development Bank.
    13. Taoufik Bouraoui, 2015. "The effect of reducing quantitative easing on emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(15), pages 1562-1573, March.
    14. Dongchul Cho & Changyong Rhee, 2014. "Effects Of Quantitative Easing On Asia: Capital Flows And Financial Markets," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 59(03), pages 1-23.
    15. Thomas Chuffart & Cyril Dell'Eva, 2020. "The role of carry trades on the effectiveness of Japan's quantitative easing," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 161, pages 30-40.
    16. Michael Debabrata Patra & Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam & S Gangadaran & Rajesh Kavediya & Jessica M. Anthony, 2016. "Responding to QE taper from the receiving end," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 167-189, July.
    17. Thi Bich Ngoc Tran & Hoang Cam Huong Pham, 2020. "The Spillover Effects of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-26, July.
    18. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2019. "The Effects of Japan’s Unconventional Monetary Policy on Asian Stock Markets," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 15(1), pages 1-20, July.
    19. Carlos Góes & Herman Kamil & Phil De Imus & Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano & Mr. Roberto Perrelli & Mr. Shaun K. Roache & Jeremy Zook, 2017. "Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Brazil and Mexico’s Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 2017/050, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Vikram Rai & Lena Suchanek, 2014. "The Effect of the Federal Reserve’s Tapering Announcements on Emerging Markets," Staff Working Papers 14-50, Bank of Canada.
    21. Marek Lubiński, 2015. "Efekty ponadgraniczne niekonwencjonalnej polityki monetarnej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 6, pages 5-28.
    22. Siregar, Reza, 2013. "Globalized Banking Sectors: Features and Policy Implications amidst Global Uncertainties," MPRA Paper 43709, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial markets; capital outflows; quantitative easing; the US; Emerging Asia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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