Valuing fuel diversification in optimal investment policies for electricity generation portfolios
AbstractOptimal capacity allocation for investments in electricity generation assets can be deterministically derived by comparing technology specific long-term and short-term marginal costs. In an uncertain market environment, Mean-Variance Portfolio (MVP) theory provides a consistent framework to valuate financial risks in power generation portfolios that allows to derive the efficient fuel mix of a system portfolio with different generation technologies from a welfare maximization perspective. Because existing literature on MVP applications in electricity generation markets uses predominantly numerical methods to characterize portfolio risks, this article presents a novel analytical approach combining conceptual elements of peak-load pricing and MVP theory to derive optimal portfolios consisting of an arbitrary number of plant technologies given uncertain fuel prices. For this purpose, we provide a static optimization model which allows to fully capture fuel price risks in a mean variance portfolio framework. The analytically derived optimality conditions contribute to a much better understanding of the optimal investment policy and its risk characteristics compared to existing numerical methods. Furthermore, we demonstrate an application of the proposed framework and results to the German electricity market which has not yet been treated in MVP literature on electricity markets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics in its series EWL Working Papers with number 0904.
Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision: Nov 2009
power plant investments; peak load pricing; mean-variance portfolio theory; fuel mix diversification;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
- C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Roques, F.A. & Nuttall, W.J. & Newbery, D.M. & de Neufville, R., 2005.
"Nuclear Power: a Hedge against Uncertain Gas and Carbon Prices?,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0555, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Fabien A. Roques & William J. Nuttall & David M. Newbery & Richard de Neufville & Stephen Connors, 2006. "Nuclear Power: A Hedge against Uncertain Gas and Carbon Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-24.
- Bjarne Steffen & Christoph Weber, 2011.
"Efficient storage capacity in power systems with thermal and renewable generation,"
EWL Working Papers
1104, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Aug 2011.
- Steffen, Bjarne & Weber, Christoph, 2013. "Efficient storage capacity in power systems with thermal and renewable generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 556-567.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Andreas Fritz).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.