Is a Tax Rebate an Effective Tool for Combating a Recession?: A Reply to Shapiro and Slemrod
AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to reply to Shapiro and Slemrod's recent article in the American Economic Review (March 2003) and address the broader issue: Is a tax rebate an effective tool for combating a recession? We make three points. First, there are serious problems with their consumer surveys. Second, they do not obtain any direct evidence on the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of the rebate. Third, even if their survey results were valid, simulations show that a tax rebate twice as large repeated for four quarters would have significantly mitigated the 2001 recession. Thus, their negative conclusion about the effectiveness of counter-cyclical fiscal policy is unwarranted.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Delaware, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 03-15.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
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More information through EDIRC
Recession; Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy; Tax Rebate;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shapiro, Matthew D & Slemrod, Joel, 1995.
"Consumer Response to the Timing of Income: Evidence from a Change in Tax Withholding,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 274-83, March.
- Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 1995. "Consumer Response to the Timing of Income: Evidence from a Change in Tax Withholding," NBER Working Papers 4344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 1999.
"The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1888, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2003.
"Consumer Response to Tax Rebates,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 381-396, March.
- Souleles, Nicholas S., 2002. "Consumer response to the Reagan tax cuts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-120, July.
- repec:rus:hseeco:95340 is not listed on IDEAS
- Seidman, Laurence S & Lewis, Kenneth A, 2002. "A New Design for Automatic Fiscal Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 251-84, Summer.
- Nicholas S. Souleles, 1999. "The Response of Household Consumption to Income Tax Refunds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 947-958, September.
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