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The Measurement of Income Distribution Dynamics when Demographics are correlated with Income

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  • Denis Cogneau

    ()
    (DIAL, IRD, Paris)

  • Michael Grimm

    ()
    (University of Göttingen, Department of Economics, DIW and DIAL)

Abstract

The purpose of our paper is to derive instructive analytics on how to account for differentials in demographic variables, and in particular mortality, when performing welfare comparisons over time. The idea is to “correct” in various ways estimated income distribution measures for “sample selection” due to differential mortality. We implement our approach empirically using three waves (1993, 1997 and 2000) of the Indonesian Family Life Surveys (IFLS). We distinguish the direct effect of mortality, i.e. individuals who die are withdrawn from the population and no longer contribute to monetary welfare, from the indirect effect, i.e. the impact on survivors pertaining to the same household of dead individuals, who may experience a decrease or an increase in monetary welfare. For the case of Indonesia, we show that the direct and indirect effects of mortality on the income distribution have opposite signs, but have the same order of magnitude. We also show that the effect of other demographic changes, like changes in the structure of fertility, migration, and educational attainment, dominate the effects of mortality, whether direct or indirect. However, we find that none of these demographic developments are large enough to explain a significant part of the change in income distribution, whether the pre-crisis period (1993-1997) or the post-crisis period (1997-2000) are considered. _________________________________ L’objectif de ce papier est de proposer des instruments analytiques permettant de prendre en compte les différentiels relatifs aux variables démographiques, en particulier la mortalité, lorsqu’on effectue des comparaisons de pauvreté au cours du temps. L’idée de base consiste à « corriger » les estimations de la distribution du revenu de la sélection liée à la mortalité différentielle. Nous mettons en oeuvre notre approche sur les trois vagues (1993, 1997 et 2000) de l’Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS). Nous distinguons l’effet direct de la mortalité, à savoir la disparition des individus décédés de la population de calcul du bien-être monétaire, de l’effet indirect, à savoir l’impact sur les survivants appartenant au même ménage qu’un individu décédé. Dans le cas de l’Indonésie, nous montrons que les effets directs et indirects de la mortalité sur la distribution du revenu ont des signes opposés mais environ le même ordre de grandeur. Nous montrons aussi que l’effet des autres changements démographiques (comme ceux de la structure de la fécondité, de la migration ou de l’éducation), dominent les effets de la mortalité qu’ils soient directs ou indirects. Cependant, nous trouvons enfin qu’aucun de ces changements démographiques n’est assez important pour expliquer une part significative du mouvement de la distribution du revenu, que l’on regarde la période précédant la crise économique (1993-97) ou la période suivante (1997-2000).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) in its series Working Papers with number DT/2004/12.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision: Dec 2004
Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200412

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Related research

Keywords: Mortalité différentielle; Dynamique de la distribution du revenu; comparaisons de bien-être; décomposition; Differential Mortality; Income Distribution Dynamics; Welfare Comparisons; Decompositions;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Corinna Ahlfeld, 2009. "The scapegoat of heterogeneity - How fragmentation influences political decisionmaking," Departmental Discussion Papers 143, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  2. Michael Grimm, 2006. "Mortality and Survivors' Consumption," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 611, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Renate Ohr, 2009. "European Monetary Union at Ten: Had the German Maastricht Critics Been Wrong?," Departmental Discussion Papers 141, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  4. Grimm, M., 2010. "Does inequality in health impede growth?," ISS Working Papers - General Series 501, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
  5. Sascha Wolff, 2006. "Migration und ihre Determinanten im ost-westdeutschen Kontext nach der Wiedervereinigung: Ein Literaturüberblick," Departmental Discussion Papers 130, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  6. Sanjaya, M Ryan, 2007. "Health cost in Indonesia: evidences from IFLS and Susenas data," MPRA Paper 13986, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Petra Enß & Robert Schwager, 2006. "Kommunaler Finanzausgleich und Gewerbesteuerhebesätze in Niedersachsen," Departmental Discussion Papers 127, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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