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What is it going to take to achieve 2020 Emission Targets? Marginal abatement cost curves and the budgetary impact of CO2 taxation in Portugal (

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  • Alfredo Marvão Pereira

    ()
    (Department of Economics, The College of William and Mary)

  • Rui M. Pereira

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of the Algarve, Faro, Portugal)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to study CO2 taxation in its dual role as a climate and fiscal policy instrument. It develops marginal abatement cost curves for CO2 emissions using a dynamic general equilibrium model of the Portuguese economy which highlights the mechanisms of endogenous growth and includes a detailed modeling of the public sector. It also considers complementary cost curves corresponding to the impact of CO2 taxes on GDP and on the public budget. Simulation results show that a tax of 17.00 Euros per tCO2 has the capacity to limit emissions to 62.6 Mt CO2 in 2020, consistent with the existing climate policy target for Portugal. In turn, changes in tax revenues, together with reductions in public spending, lead to a 2.7% decline in public debt. These desirable outcomes come at the cost of a 0.7% reduction in GDP. In general, stricter emission targets imply greater equilibrium CO2 tax levels and larger GDP losses, although these are accompanied by greater reductions in public debt. Finally, the paper highlights the importance of public spending behavior for projecting the impact of CO2 taxes on public revenues and the public account and designing policies to promote fiscal consolidation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, College of William and Mary in its series Working Papers with number 105.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 03 Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwm:wpaper:105

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Keywords: Marginal Abatement Costs; Economic Effects; Budgetary Effects; Carbon Taxation; Dynamic General Equilibrium; Portugal;

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  1. Carlo Carraro & Enrica De Cian & Massimo Tavoni, 2009. "Human Capital Formation and Global Warming Mitigation: Evidence from an Integrated Assessment Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 2874, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Gilbert Metcalf & David Weisbach, 2008. "The Design of a Carbon Tax," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0728, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  3. van Zon, Adriaan & Yetkiner, I. Hakan, 2003. "An endogenous growth model with embodied energy-saving technical change," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 81-103, February.
  4. Böhringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tol, Richard S. J., 2009. "The EU 20/20/2020 Targets: An Overview of the EMF22 Assessment," Papers WP325, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
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  1. Marginal abatement cost curves and the budgetary impact of CO2 taxation in Portugal
    by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2011-02-07 02:31:15
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Cited by:
  1. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui M. Pereira, 2012. "DGEP - A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Portuguese Economy: Model Documentation," Working Papers 127, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  2. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui M. Pereira, 2011. "On the Economic and Budgetary Impact of Fiscal Devaluation in Portugal," Working Papers 116, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  3. Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung, 2012. "A Macroeconomic Analysis of Energy Subsidies in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Egypt," Caepr Working Papers 2012-006, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.

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