IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/crn/wpaper/crn2102.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stock-flow adjustments and interest costs in public debt dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Fabrizio Casalin
  • Floriana Cerniglia
  • Enzo Dia

Abstract

Standard analyses of debt sustainability are based on the conventional notion of interest costs. We propose an alternative measure — dubbed shadow interest costs — that accounts for the effects of stock-flow adjustments on the stock of debt. The two measures differ because of the relevance of active debt management: Shadow costs are far larger, more volatile, persistent, and sensitive to changes in macroeconomic conditions. As a result, while reported costs for high-debt countries are largely shielded from changes in market interest rates and debt levels, shadow costs are not. These last allow far more realistic assessments of debt sustainability than their conventional counterparts.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrizio Casalin & Floriana Cerniglia & Enzo Dia, 2021. "Stock-flow adjustments and interest costs in public debt dynamics," CRANEC - Working Papers del Centro di Ricerche in Analisi economica e sviluppo economico internazionale crn2102, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Centro di Ricerche in Analisi economica e sviluppo economico internazionale (CRANEC).
    • Handle: RePEc:crn:wpaper:crn2102
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://centridiricerca.unicatt.it/cranec-WP%20%2002-21_%20(Casalin-Cerniglia-Dia).pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campos, Camila F.S. & Jaimovich, Dany & Panizza, Ugo, 2006. "The unexplained part of public debt," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 228-243, September.
    2. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2016. "Real-Time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 302-326, April.
    3. Alessandro Missale & Francesco Giavazzi & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2002. "How is the Debt Managed? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 443-469, September.
    4. Weicheng Lian & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Ursula Wiriadinata, 2020. "Public Debt and r - g at Risk," IMF Working Papers 2020/137, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Alessandro Missale, 2001. "Public Debt Management and the SGP," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Anne Brunila & Marco Buti & Daniele Franco (ed.), The Stability and Growth Pact, chapter 14, pages 344-368, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. von Hagen, Jurgen & Wolff, Guntram B., 2006. "What do deficits tell us about debt? Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in the EU," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3259-3279, December.
    7. Missale, Alessandro & Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1994. "The Debt Burden and Debt Maturity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 309-319, March.
    8. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    10. Casalin, Fabrizio & Dia, Enzo & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 2020. "Public debt dynamics with tax revenue constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 501-515.
    11. Markus Eberhardt, 2012. "Estimating panel time-series models with heterogeneous slopes," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 12(1), pages 61-71, March.
    12. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    13. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    14. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2020. "Stock flow adjustments in sovereign debt dynamics: The role of fiscal frameworks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-16.
    15. S M Ali Abbas & Nazim Belhocine & Asmaa El-Ganainy & Mark Horton, 2011. "Historical Patterns and Dynamics of Public Debt—Evidence From a New Database," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 717-742, November.
    16. Campos, Camila F.S. & Jaimovich, Dany & Panizza, Ugo, 2006. "The unexplained part of public debt," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 228-243, September.
    17. Miss Anke Weber, 2012. "Stock-Flow Adjustments and Fiscal Transparency: A Cross-Country Comparison," IMF Working Papers 2012/039, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper & de Jong, Frank, 2021. "The maturity of sovereign debt issuance in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    19. Francis Teal & Markus Eberhardt, 2010. "Productivity Analysis in Global Manufacturing Production," Economics Series Working Papers 515, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. Daniel Hoechle, 2007. "Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(3), pages 281-312, September.
    21. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    22. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    23. Carlo Cottarelli, 2016. "A European fiscal union: the case for a larger central budget," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 33(1), pages 1-8, April.
    24. Eberhardt, Markus & Teal, Francis, 2008. "Modeling technology and technological change in manufacturing: how do countries differ?," MPRA Paper 10690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Oecd, 2011. "Regulatory Reform of OTC Derivatives and Its Implications for Sovereign Debt Management Practices," OECD Working Papers on Sovereign Borrowing and Public Debt Management 1, OECD Publishing.
    26. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Peter Wierts, 2009. "Planning to cheat: EU fiscal policy in real time [‘What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(60), pages 753-804.
    27. Jaramillo, Laura & Mulas-Granados, Carlos & Kimani, Elijah, 2017. "Debt spikes and stock flow adjustments: Emerging economies in perspective," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-14.
    28. Mauro Bucci & Ilaria De Angelis & Emilio Vadalà, 2020. "Don’t look back in anger: The use of derivatives in public debt management in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 550, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    29. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Casalin, Fabrizio & Cerniglia, Floriana & Dia, Enzo, 2023. "Stock-flow adjustments, public debt management and interest costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Olivier Damette & Mathilde Maurel & Michael A. Stemmer, 2016. "What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries," Post-Print halshs-01318131, HAL.
    3. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Is There a J-Curve Effect in the Services Trade in Canada? A Panel Data Analysis," MPRA Paper 106704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mehmood, Bilal & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Jiao, Zhilun, 2023. "Do Muslim economies need insurance to grow? Answer from rigorous empirical evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 346-359.
    5. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    6. Hussein Moghaddam & Robert M. Kunst, 2023. "The Role of Natural Gas in Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Major Gas-Producing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Usman, Muhammad & Makhdum, Muhammad Sohail Amjad, 2021. "What abates ecological footprint in BRICS-T region? Exploring the influence of renewable energy, non-renewable energy, agriculture, forest area and financial development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 12-28.
    8. Lazăr, Dorina & Minea, Alexandru & Purcel, Alexandra-Anca, 2019. "Pollution and economic growth: Evidence from Central and Eastern European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1121-1131.
    9. Hlalefang Khobai & Clement Moyo, 2021. "Trade openness and industry performance in SADC countries: is the manufacturing sector different?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 105-126, February.
    10. Zahed Ghaderi & Behnaz Saboori & Mana Khoshkam, 2023. "Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in the MENA Region: The Roles of International Tourist Arrivals, Energy Consumption and Trade Openness," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-18, January.
    11. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2017. "Dutch disease, real effective exchange rate misalignments and their effect on GDP growth in EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 350-370.
    12. R. Golinelli & I. Mammi & A. Musolesi, 2018. "Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area," Working Papers wp1120, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    13. Nnyanzi John Bosco & Oryema John Bosco & Kilimani Nicholas, 2022. "How important are remittances to savings? Evidence from the Latin America and the Caribbean Countries," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 13(1), pages 1-37, January.
    14. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2018. "Globalization and Environment: An Asian Experience," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-27, October.
    15. Cern Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2012. "Spatial autoregressive spillovers vs unobserved common factors models. A panel data analysis of international technology diffusion," INRA UMR CESAER Working Papers 2012/9, INRA UMR CESAER, Centre d'’Economie et Sociologie appliquées à l'’Agriculture et aux Espaces Ruraux.
    16. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing credit gaps in CESEE based on levels justified by fundamentals – a comparison across different estimation approaches," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 74, Bank of Lithuania.
    17. Gautam, Tej K. & Paudel, Krishna P., 2018. "The demand for natural gas in the Northeastern United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 890-898.
    18. Hamit-Haggar, Mahamat, 2012. "Greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: A panel cointegration analysis from Canadian industrial sector perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 358-364.
    19. Usman, Muhammad & Khalid, Khaizran & Mehdi, Muhammad Abuzar, 2021. "What determines environmental deficit in Asia? Embossing the role of renewable and non-renewable energy utilization," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 1165-1176.
    20. Taimoor Arif Kiani & Samina Sabir & Unbreen Qayyum & Sohail Anjum, 2023. "Estimating the effect of technological innovations on environmental degradation: empirical evidence from selected ASEAN and SAARC countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 6529-6550, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock-flow adjustments; public debt; primary deficit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crn:wpaper:crn2102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nicoletta Oltolini (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cacatit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.