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Structural or Cyclical? Unemployment in Latvia Since the 2008-09 Financial Crisis

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  • Vanags, Alf
  • Sonin, Konstantin
  • Anosova, Daria
  • Zasova, Anna

Abstract

In terms of output decline and increase in unemployment, the economic recession in Latvia that started during the 2008-09 financial crisis was one of the most severe in the world. Using both decomposition of the unemployment rate into structural and cyclical components and Mortensen and Pissarides? search and matching approach, we demonstrate that the changes in unemployment should be attributed primarily to cyclical, rather than structural factors; as of 2013, a large share of Latvian unemployment is still cyclical. Our results provide important implications for anti-crisis policy in Latvia and elsewhere in the world: the surge in unemployment was largely a consequence of Latvia?s austerity policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Vanags, Alf & Sonin, Konstantin & Anosova, Daria & Zasova, Anna, 2013. "Structural or Cyclical? Unemployment in Latvia Since the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9525, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9525
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    2. Daly, Mary C. & Hobijn, Bart & Valletta, Robert G., 2011. "The Recent Evolution of the Natural Rate of Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 5832, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    4. Edward P. Lazear & James R. Spletzer, 2012. "The United States labor market: status quo or a new normal?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 405-451.
    5. Giorgio Topa & Gianluca Violante & Aysegul Sahin, 2010. "Mismatch in the Labor Market," 2010 Meeting Papers 362, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2012. "A Search and Matching Approach to Labor Markets: Did the Natural Rate of Unemployment Rise?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
    7. Olivier Blanchard, 2006. "European unemployment: the evolution of facts and ideas [‘The macroeconomics of low inflation’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 6-59.
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    Cited by:

    1. Olegs Krasnopjorovs, 2015. "Natural and Cyclical Unemployment in Latvia: New Insights from the Beveridge Curve Model," Discussion Papers 2015/02, Latvijas Banka.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Mark Griffiths & Bertrand Gruss, 2013. "Boom, Bust, Recovery Forensics of the Latvia Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 325-388.
    3. Olivier Blanchard & Mark Griffiths & Bertrand Gruss, 2013. "Boom, Bust, Recovery: Forensics of the Latvia Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(2 (Fall)), pages 325-388.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cyclical unemployment; Labour market matching; Structural unemployment; Beveridge curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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