International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Investment Opportunities
AbstractThis paper analyses the international equity holdings of a large panel of UK pension funds. We find considerable evidence of market timing activity, as illustrated by the funds' decision to scale back their investments in the US stock market during the 1990s. To explain this we model portfolio weight dynamics as a function of time-varying conditional moments. We find that a substantial part of the evolution in portfolio weights is explained by time-varying conditional expected returns, volatilities and covariances with domestic equity returns. Consequently, controlling for the effect of state variables that track time-variations in investment opportunities significantly affects estimates of returns from international market timing. Our estimates suggest that the portfolio movements that were orthogonal to such state variables accounted for a net loss of 0.2 per cent per annum for the average fund.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3464.
Date of creation: Jul 2002
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Other versions of this item:
- Allan Timmermann & David Blake, 2005. "International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Investment Opportunities," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 71-98, January.
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-03-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2003-03-14 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2003-03-14 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2003-03-14 (Risk Management)
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- Nadima El-Hassan & Paul Kofman, 2003. "Tracking Error and Active Portfolio Management," Research Paper Series 98, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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- Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew & Dowd, Kevin, 2008. "Turning pension plans into pension planes: What investment strategy designers of defined contribution pension plans can learn from commercial aircraft designers," MPRA Paper 33749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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