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The Downside of Domestic Substitution of Oil with Biofuels: Will Brazil Catch the Dutch Disease?

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Author Info
James A. Giesecke
J. Mark Horridge
José A. Scaramucci

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Abstract

In response to oil price rises and carbon emission concerns, policies promoting increased ethanol usage in gasoline blends are being implemented by many countries, including major energy users such as USA, EU and Japan. As a result, Brazil, as the largest ethanol producer and exporter in the world, can expect growing foreign demand for ethanol exports. Also, the introduction of flex-fuel vehicles in Brazil is causing domestic sales of ethanol to increase steadily. In this paper, we investigate the regional and industrial economic consequences of rapid growth in Brazilian ethanol consumption and exports. For this, we use a disaggregated multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with energy industry detail. Our modelling emphasises a number of features of ethanol production in Brazil which we expect to be important in determining the adjustment of its regional economies to a substantial expansion in ethanol production. These include regional differences in ethanol and sugar production technologies, sugarcane harvesting methods and the elasticity of land supply to sugarcane production.

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Paper provided by Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-169.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-169

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Related research
Keywords: CGE models; energy; ethanol; Brazil;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
R11 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Analysis of Growth, Development, and Changes
R49 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Transportation Systems - - - Other

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  1. W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June. [Downloadable!]
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