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Flexible Exchange Rates and Traded Goods Prices: A Theory of the Short-Run

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  • Jayant Menon

Abstract

The volatility displayed by floating exchange rates has revived interest in the relationship between exchange rates and traded goods prices. This paper aims to provide a theory of exchange rates and traded goods prices in the short-run. In particular, it examines how various factors can cause exchange rate pass-through to be incomplete in the short-run but not in the long-run. These include: (i) menu costs, (ii) the costs of changing supply, (iii) the dynamics of demand response to price changes, (iv) order-delivery lags, (v) forward exchange cover, and (vi) the currency denomination of trade contracts. From a policy perspective, the presence of these factors could account for the often prolonged adjustment of trade balances to exchange rate changes, and the failure of exchange rate volatility to perceptibly affect the volume of international trade flows.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-108.

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Date of creation: Jun 1994
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Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-108

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  1. Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey, 1971. "Price Competitiveness in World Trade," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krav71-1, June.
  2. Kravis, Irving B. & Lipsey, Robert E., 1978. "Price behavior in the light of balance of payments theories," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 193-246, May.
  3. Mussa, Michael, 1981. "Sticky Prices and Disequilibrium Adjustment in a Rational Model of the Inflationary Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1020-27, December.
  4. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June.
  5. Stephen P. Magee, 1973. "Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 303-325.
  6. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  7. Paul R. Krugman, 1979. "Vehicle Currencies And the Structure Of International Exchange," NBER Working Papers 0333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Venables, Anthony J, 1990. "Microeconomic Implications of Exchange Rate Variations," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 18-27, Autumn.
  9. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Prices," NBER Working Papers 1769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Jayant Menon, 1992. "Pricing to Market Behaviour and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japanese Exports," Working Papers 1992.32, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
  11. Dohner, Robert S., 1984. "Export pricing, flexible exchange rates, and divergence in the prices of traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 79-101, February.
  12. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-28, May.
  13. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 529-38, May.
  14. Paul Krugman, 1986. "Pricing to Market when the Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 1926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Sven W. Arndt & J. David Richardson, 1987. "Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 2230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Helen B. Junz & Rudolf R. Rhomberg, 1973. "Price competitiveness in export trade among industrial countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Dunn, Robert M, Jr, 1970. "Flexible Exchange Rates and Oligopoly Pricing: A Study of Canadian Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 140-51, Jan.-Feb..
  18. Junz, Helen B & Rhomberg, Rudolf R, 1973. "Price Competitiveness in Export Trade Among Industrial Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 412-18, May.
  19. Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-85, September.
  20. Menon, Jayant, 1995. " Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, June.
  21. Clark Leith, J., 1991. "The exchange rate and the price level in a small open economy: Botswana," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 309-315.
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Cited by:
  1. Nazli Toraganli, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Exposure in the Turkish Economy," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 10(1), pages 47-69.

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