IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000418/019342.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Desindustrialización: evidencias desde una mirada kaldoriana para Colombia (2005-2017)

Author

Listed:
  • Wilson Quijano
  • Diego Alejandro Guevara-Castañeda

Abstract

Resumen Este artículo presenta los resultados arrojados por las estimaciones del modelo de las leyes de Kaldor para la búsqueda de evidencias de la desindustrialización de la economía colombiana en el periodo 2005-2017. El ejercicio econométrico muestra el papel de la industria manufacturera como motor de crecimiento. La metodología emplea un modelamiento en dos paneles: el primero de tipo balanceado con datos agregados para 23 áreas metropolitanas, y el segundo de tipo desbalanceado agregando datos desde el nivel de firma, con la muestra obtenida de la Encuesta Anual Manufacturera (EAM) para dicho periodo. Con base en los resultados de múltiples estimaciones, se encuentra y reafirma que el debilitamiento del sector manufacturero se evidencia en el declive sostenido del porcentaje de participación que tiene este en el empleo total y el PIB; y en el vínculo nocivo entre la dinámica del empleo manufacturero y el crecimiento del producto. Las evidencias de la desindustrialización identificadas, permiten concluir que el aporte de la manufactura al crecimiento económico se sustenta en rendimientos crecientes a escala estáticos. Abstract This article presents the results given by the calculations made using Kaldor’s growth model for the search of evidence of deindustrialization in the Colombian economy in the period that spans 2005-2017. This econometric exercise shows the role of the manufacturing industry as a motor for growth. The methodology uses modelling in two panels: the first, a balanced type with data added for 23 metropolitan areas; the second, a balanced type adding data from a company level, with a sample obtained from the Encuesta Anual Manufacturera (EAM) – Annual Manufacturing Survey for said period. Based on the results of multiple calculations, it is found and reaffirmed that the weakening of the manufacturing sector is evidenced in decline sustained by the percentage of participation that it has in total employment and GDP, and the harmful link between the dynamics of manufacturing employment and growth of the product. The evidence of deindustrialization identified allows a conclusion that the contribution of manufacturing to economic growth is based on static economies of scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilson Quijano & Diego Alejandro Guevara-Castañeda, 2021. "Desindustrialización: evidencias desde una mirada kaldoriana para Colombia (2005-2017)," Ensayos de Economía 19342, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000418:019342
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/ede/article/view/88693
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jesus Felipe & J. S. L. McCombie, 2002. "A Problem with Some Estimations and Interpretations of the Mark-up in Manufacturing Industry," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 187-215.
    2. Dani Rodrik, 2016. "Premature deindustrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, March.
    3. Adolfo Meisel R., 1998. "Dutch Disease And Banana Exports In The Colombian Caribbean, 1910-1950," Borradores de Economia 2384, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Kamas, Linda, 1986. "Dutch disease economics and the Colombian export boom," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 1177-1198, September.
    5. Stanislaw Gomulka, 1983. "Industrialization and the Rate of Growth: Eastern Europe 1955-75," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 388-396, March.
    6. John S. L. McCombie & Mark Roberts, 2007. "Returns To Scale And Regional Growth: The Static-Dynamic Verdoorn Law Paradox Revisited," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 179-208, May.
    7. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres García, 2015. "Flujos de capital, recursos naturales y enfermedad holandesa: el caso colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 33(78), pages 197-206, December.
    8. Alberto Botta & Antoine Godin & Marco Missaglia, 2016. "Finance, foreign (direct) investment and dutch disease: the case of Colombia," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 33(2), pages 265-289, August.
    9. A. P. Thirlwall, 2015. "Essays on Keynesian and Kaldorian Economics," Palgrave Studies in the History of Economic Thought, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-40948-5, December.
    10. McCombie, J S L, 1985. "Increasing Returns and the Manufacturing Industries: Some Empirical Issues," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 53(1), pages 55-75, March.
    11. Alvaro Angeriz & John McCombie & Mark Roberts, 2009. "Increasing Returns and the Growth of Industries in the EU Regions: Paradoxes and Conundrums," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 127-148.
    12. Sukti Dasgupta & Ajit Singh, 2006. "Manufacturing, Services and Premature De-Industrialisation in Developing Countries: A Kaldorian Empirical Analysis," Working Papers wp327, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    13. Felipe, Jesus & Mehta, Aashish, 2016. "Deindustrialization? A global perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 148-151.
    14. Jaime Ros, 2015. "Development Macroeconomics in Latin America and Mexico," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-46366-1, December.
    15. Sukti Dasgupta & Ajit Singh, 2006. "Manufacturing, Services and Premature Deindustrialization in Developing Countries: A Kaldorian Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2006-49, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Palma, José Gabriel, 2005. "Cuatro fuentes de "desindustrialización" y un nuevo concepto del "síndrome holandés"," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1878.
    17. Fernando Galindo-Rueda & Fabien Verger, 2016. "OECD Taxonomy of Economic Activities Based on R&D Intensity," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2016/4, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maria Savona, 2021. "Revisiting High Development Theory to Explain Upgrading Prospects in Business Services Global Value Chains," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(2), pages 206-226, April.
    2. Çakır, Muhammet Sait & Aydemir, Resul, 2022. "A Dutch disease approach into the premature deindustrialization," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    3. Gisela Di Meglio & Jorge Gallego & Andrés Maroto & Maria Savona, 2018. "Services in Developing Economies: The Deindustrialization Debate in Perspective," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 49(6), pages 1495-1525, November.
    4. Yahya Z. ALSHEHHI & Jozsef POPP, 2017. "Sectoral Analysis: Growth Accounting Of Tertiary Industries," SEA - Practical Application of Science, Romanian Foundation for Business Intelligence, Editorial Department, issue 14, pages 221-230, August.
    5. Yazgan, Sekip & Marangoz, Cumali & Bulut, Emre, 2022. "The turning point of regional deindustrialization in the U.S.: Evidence from panel and time-series data," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 294-304.
    6. Gisela Di Meglio & Jorge Gallego & Andrés Maroto & Maria Savona, 2015. "Services in Developing Economies: A new chance for catching-up?," SPRU Working Paper Series 2015-32, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    7. Marija Beg & Martina Basarac Sertic & Ivo Druzic, 2017. "Determinants of Deindustrialisation in Developed European and Post-Communist Countries," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 13(2), pages 93-106.
    8. Ajit K. Ghose, 2021. "Structural Change and Development in India," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 15(1), pages 7-29, April.
    9. Alexandre Messa, 2012. "Structural Change in The Brazilian Economy in The 2000s," Discussion Papers 1770, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    10. Andre Lorentz & Tommaso Ciarli & Maria Savona & Marco Valente, 2019. "Structural Transformations and Cumulative Causation: Towards an Evolutionary Micro-foundation of the Kaldorian Growth Model," Working Papers of BETA 2019-15, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    11. Armando J. Garcia Pires & José Pedro Pontes, 2021. "(De)Industrialization, Technology and Transportation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 527-538, July.
    12. Alberto Botta & Giuliano Toshiro Yajima & Gabriel Porcile, 2023. "Structural change, productive development, and capital flows: does financial “bonanza” cause premature deindustrialization?," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 433-473.
    13. Chen, Liming & Felipe, Jesus & Kam, Andrew J.Y. & Mehta, Aashish, 2021. "Is employment globalizing?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 74-92.
    14. André Roncaglia De Carvalho & - André M. Marques, 2018. "Economic Development And Inflation: A Theoretical And Empirical Analysis," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 41, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    15. Fabrizio Ferretti & Michele Mariani & Elena Sarti, 2022. "Patterns of Deindustrialization: Are Countries Converging?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(10), pages 1-78, October.
    16. Kym Anderson & Sundar Ponnusamy, 2019. "Structural Transformation to Manufacturing and Services: What Role for Trade?," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 36(2), pages 32-71, September.
    17. Itaman, Richard E. & Awopegba, Oluwafemi E., 2021. "Finance, oil rent and premature deindustrialisation in Nigeria," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 149-161.
    18. Ravago, Majah-Leah V. & Brucal, Arlan Zandro & Roumasset, James & Punongbayan, Jan Carlo, 2019. "The role of power prices in structural transformation: Evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 20-33.
    19. Peter Mayerhofer, 2007. "De-Industrialisierung in Wien(?) Zur abnehmenden Bedeutung der Sachgütererzeugung für das Wiener Beschäftigungssystem: Umfang, Gründe, Wirkungsmechanismen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 33120, Juni.
    20. Martin Labaj & Stracova Erika, 2019. "Drivers of Deindustrialisation: Sub-system Analysis of Internationally Fragmented Production Structures," Department of Economic Policy Working Paper Series 018, Department of Economic Policy, Faculty of National Economy, University of Economics in Bratislava.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    desindustrialización; Kaldor; rendimientos crecientes; manufactura; crecimiento económico; ley de Kaldor-Verdoorn.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B50 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000418:019342. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Universidad Nacional de Medellín (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dunamco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.