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Sobre los fundamentales del precio de la energía eléctrica : evidencia empírica para Colombia

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  • Barrientos Marín, Jorge Hugo
  • Toro Martínez, Mónica

Abstract

Resumen: En este trabajo estamos interesados en estudiar los fundamentales del mercado que afectan la formación de los precios de la energía eléctrica en Colombia, así como evaluar el efecto de choques positivos en algunas variables identificadas como responsables de la formación del precio. Para el objetivo se estiman procesos VAR. Adicionalmente se lleva a cabo un ejercicio de pronóstico exploratorios para determinar la trayectoria futura del precio de la energía en los próximos diez anos. La conclusión principal del trabajo es que, dadas las condiciones del mercado eléctrico colombiano, las variables que afectan principalmente los precios de la energía son: la demanda, la hidrología y la disponibilidad declarada. En cuanto al pronóstico los precios muestran una tendencia creciente para los próximos anos con una caída y recuperación en el ano 2018. Abstract : In this paper we are interested in investigating the market fundamentals that influences energy prices formation in Colombia and evaluating the impact of some market variables on the behavior of energy price by estimating the impulse-response function. To this end we estimate VAR specification. In addition, we carried out an exploratory analysis for forecasting the future energy prices in the next 10 years. Our main conclusion is that the set of variables which most affects the evolution of the energy prices is the hydrology and the declared availability. About the forecasting, we found that the energy prices going to increase for the next years with a kind of fall around 2018 just for recovery ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrientos Marín, Jorge Hugo & Toro Martínez, Mónica, 2017. "Sobre los fundamentales del precio de la energía eléctrica : evidencia empírica para Colombia," Borradores Departamento de Economía 17497, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000196:017497
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mercado de energía de corto plazo; precio; VAR; Función de Impulso Respuesta; pronóstico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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