IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000124/018275.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impacto macroeconómico y social de la inversión en infraestructura en Colombia, 2021-2030

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Fernando Mejía
  • Martha Elena Delgado

Abstract

La inversión en infraestructura de transporte tiene como objetivo cerrar las brechas regionales del país e interconectar los principales centros de producción y consumo con los principales puertos. Además, mejoras sustanciales en la infraestructura de transporte multimodal tienen efectos directos en incrementos de la competitividad y la eficiencia del sector productivo y por esta vía, un mayor crecimiento económico de largo plazo (Aschauer, 1989). Estos elementos cobran mayor relevancia en el contexto económico actual, donde la crisis económica causada por el desplome de los precios internacionales del petróleo y el COVID-19 llevará a que la economía colombiana crezca a tasas negativas por cuarta vez en los últimos 100 anos, con un deterioro importante en sus cifras de desempleo y pobreza. Una mayor inversión en infraestructura hace parte fundamental entonces de la agenda de recuperación económica posterior al choque, dados sus fuertes encadenamientos con otros sectores de la economía y su efecto positivo sobre el empleo y el ingreso de los hogares. Si bien la evolución de la inversión en infraestructura colombiana en la última década mejoró considerablemente, en especial debido al desarrollo de los proyectos de obras viales de cuarta generación que iniciaron en el periodo 2014-2016, los principales indicadores a nivel internacional muestran aún un rezago en este frente. En efecto, datos comparativos de la calidad de la infraestructura en relación con el PIB per cápita en 124 países emergentes indican que la calidad de la infraestructura en Colombia es aún deficiente para su nivel actual de desarrollo. Esto explica en buena parte los altos costos logísticos y de transporte del entramado productivo, limitando su inserción en el comercio internacional. En este contexto, este documento tiene como propósito estimar los impactos sobre la economía colombiana de la inversión en infraestructura durante los próximos 10 anos.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Fernando Mejía & Martha Elena Delgado, 2020. "Impacto macroeconómico y social de la inversión en infraestructura en Colombia, 2021-2030," Informes de Investigación 18275, Fedesarrollo.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000124:018275
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/3960
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gibbons, Stephen & Lyytikäinen, Teemu & Overman, Henry G. & Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2019. "New road infrastructure: The effects on firms," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 35-50.
    2. Gramlich, Edward M, 1994. "Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1176-1196, September.
    3. Pablo RODA & Francisco PERDOMO & Jorge SÁNCHEZ, 2015. "Impacto de la infraestructura de transporte en el desempeno económico," Archivos de Economía 12620, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    4. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    5. Juan Mauricio Ramírez & Leonardo Villar, 2015. "Macroeconomía de las concesiones de cuarta generación," Informes de Investigación 15060, Fedesarrollo.
    6. Pereira, Alfredo M & Sagales, Oriol Roca, 1999. "Public Capital Formation and Regional Development in Spain," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 281-294, October.
    7. Masten, Igor & Grdović Gnip, Ana, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of public investment in South-East Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1179-1194.
    8. Ortiz, Carlos Humberto & Jiménez, Diana & Cruz, Gissel, 2019. "El impacto de la infraestructura en el crecimiento económico colombiano: un enfoque smithiano," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 90, pages 97-126, January.
    9. Yang Zou, 2006. "Empirical studies on the relationship between public and private investment and GDP growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1259-1270.
    10. Chakrabarti, Sandip, 2018. "Can highway development promote employment growth in India?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-9.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ward Romp & Jakob De Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(S1), pages 6-52, April.
    2. Silvia Bertarelli, 2006. "Public capital and growth," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 361-398.
    3. Pedro R.D. Bom & Jenny E. Ligthart, 2009. "How Productive is Public Capital? A Meta-Regression Analysis," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0912, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    4. Federici, Andrea, 2018. "Il rapporto tra capitale pubblico e altre variabili macroeconomiche: analisi della letteratura [The relationship between public capital and other macroeconomic variable: a literature review]," MPRA Paper 88515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2013. "On The Economic Effects Of Public Infrastructure Investment: A Survey Of The International Evidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-37, December.
    6. Fedderke, J.W. & Bogetic, Z., 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1522-1539, September.
    7. Muhammad Javid, 2019. "Public and Private Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Aggregate and Disaggregate Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, June.
    8. Alexander Eck & Joachim Ragnitz & Simone Scharfe & Christian Thater & Bernhard Wieland, 2015. "Public Investments in Infrastructure: Development, Causal Factors and Growth Effects," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    9. Melvin Ayogu, 0. "Infrastructure and Economic Development in Africa: A Review-super- †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 16(suppl_1), pages -126.
    10. Pedro R.D. Bom & Jenny E. Ligthart, 2014. "What Have We Learned From Three Decades Of Research On The Productivity Of Public Capital?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 889-916, December.
    11. Federici, Andrea, 2018. "Il rapporto tra capitale pubblico e altre variabili macroeconomiche: un'applicazione empirica [The relationship between public capital and other macroeconomic variables: an empirical application]," MPRA Paper 88516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Pereira, Alfredo Marvao & Roca-Sagales, Oriol, 2003. "Spillover effects of public capital formation: evidence from the Spanish regions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 238-256, March.
    13. repec:lrk:lrkwkp:fiirs016 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ingrid Ott & Susanne Soretz, 2006. "Governmental activity, integration, and agglomeration," Working Paper Series in Economics 57, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    15. Urrunaga, Roberto & Aparicio, Carlos, 2012. "Infrastructure and economic growth in Peru," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    16. Zheng, Xinye & Li, Fanghua & Song, Shunfeng & Yu, Yihua, 2013. "Central government's infrastructure investment across Chinese regions: A dynamic spatial panel data approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 264-276.
    17. Antonio Soares Martins Neto & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2017. "Competitive Exchange Rate and Public Infrastructure in a Macrodynamic of Economic Growth," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 792-815, November.
    18. Giacomello, Giampiero & Picci, Lucio, 2003. "My scale or your meter? Evaluating methods of measuring the Internet," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 363-383, September.
    19. Mamatzakis, E. C., 2003. "Public infrastructure and productivity growth in Greek agriculture," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 169-180, October.
    20. Matthew Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew T. Young, 2003. "Growth and Convergence across the US: Evidence from County-Level Data," Working Papers 2003-03, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    21. Pereira, Alfred M. & Roca-Sagales, Oriol, 2001. "Infrastructures and private sector performance in Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 371-384, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Infraestructura; Inversión en Infraestructura; Intraestructura del Transporte; Impacto Macroeconómico y Social; Economía Colombiana; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000124:018275. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Patricia Monroy (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fedesco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.