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Currency Shocks to Export Sales of Importers: A Heterogeneous Firms Model and Czech Micro Estimates

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  • Peter Toth

Abstract

To what extent can Czech exporters cushion the impact of currency appreciation shocks by using imported intermediates? We apply a partial equilibrium model with firms that are heterogeneous in their productivities. Producers can serve the domestic market, export final goods, or import inputs. In the model, an exogenous exchange rate shock simultaneously affects the variable costs and revenues associated with exports and imports. The impact of a hypothetical 1% appreciation of the domestic currency on sales is estimated using a panel of 7,356 Czech manufacturing firms observed from 2003 to 2006. We identify the estimates from within-firm variation in trade strategies, which is probably associated with the lifting of trade barriers due to Czech EU membership since 2004. For firms that both export and import, we predict a drop in total sales of 0.2%, a drop in export sales of 0.8%, and a rise in domestic sales of 0.2%.

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Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2013/04.

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Date of creation: Jul 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2013/04

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Keywords: Exchange rate pass-through; heterogeneous firms; international trade; monopolistic competition; production function; total factor productivity.;

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  1. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341, 04.
  2. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  3. Yeaple, Stephen & Helpman, Elhanan & Melitz, Marc, 2004. "Export versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," Scholarly Articles 3229098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-59, December.
  5. Vlastimil Cadek & Helena Rottova & Branislav Saxa, 2011. "Hedging Behaviour of Czech Exporting Firms," Working Papers 2011/14, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  6. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Beverly Lapham, 2008. "Productivity and the Decision to Import and Export: Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 2240, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Baniak, Andrzej & Philips, Louis, 1995. "La Pleiade and exchange rate pass-through," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 195-211.
  8. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Joel Rodrigue, 2005. "Does the Use of Imported Intermediates Increase Productivity? Plant-Level Evidence," University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute Working Papers 20057, University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute.
  9. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
  10. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-64, September.
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