Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Real Options, Preemption, and the Dynamics of Industry Investments

Contents:

Author Info

  • Marcel Boyer

    ()

  • Pierre Lasserre

    ()

  • Thomas Mariotti
  • Michel Moreaux

    ()

Abstract

We study the development of a duopoly industry -evolution of firm capacities and competitive behavior- in a continuous-time real-options model of capacity investment. Our methodology allows the evaluation of investment options and exercise rules in a strategic setup. In the initial industry development phase, firms attempt to preempt each other, so that the first industry investment occurs earlier than socially optimal and the first entrant takes more risk than socially optimal. While capacity units are costly, indivisible, durable, and big relative to market size, early entry cannot secure a first-mover advantage, so that both firms are active beyond some level of market development. Once both firms hold capacity, tacit collusion, taking the form of postponed capacity investment, may occur in Markov Perfect Equilibrium. Volatility and the expected speed of market development play a crucial role in the determination of competitive behavior: we show that a tacit-collusion equilibrium is certain to exist when market growth is highly volatile and/or very fast. Nous étudions le développement d'une industrie -capacités et comportement concurrentiel- dans un modèle en temps continu d'options réelles d'investissement en capacité. Notre méthodologie permet l'évaluation des options et des règles d'exercice en contexte stratégique. Initialement, les firmes ont un comportement de préemption, si bien que le premier investissement en capacité se produit plus tôt, et comporte un risque plus élevé, que socialement désirable. Bien que les unités de capacité soient coûteuses, indivisibles, durables et de taille non négligeable par rapport au marché, l'entrée hâtive ne peut conférer d'avantage durable; à partir d'un certain niveau de développement du marché, les deux firmes sont en activité. Alors, une collusion tacite pour retarder les augmentations de capacité subséquentes peut devenir possible en équilibre Markovien parfait. La volatilité du marché et sa vitesse de croissance jouent ici un rôle crucial: l'équilibre de collusion tacite existe si la croissance est très volatile et/ou très rapide.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cirano.qc.ca/pdf/publication/2001s-64.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2001s-64.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2001s-64

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 2020 rue University, 25e étage, Montréal, Quéc, H3A 2A5
Phone: (514) 985-4000
Fax: (514) 985-4039
Email:
Web page: http://www.cirano.qc.ca/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Real options; Option value; Duopoly; Preemption; Collusion; Capacity; Industry growth; Volatility; Risk ; Options réelles; Valeur d'option; Duopole; Préemption; Collusion; Capacité; Croissance du marché; Volatilité; Risque;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Helen Weeds, 2002. "Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 729-747.
  2. Leahy, John V, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-33, November.
  3. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December.
  4. Harris, Christopher J & Vickers, John S, 1985. "Patent Races and the Persistence of Monopoly," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 461-81, June.
  5. Décamps, Jean-Paul & Mariotti, Thomas, 2000. "Irreversible Investment and Learning Externalities," IDEI Working Papers 97, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  6. Gilbert, Richard & Harris, Richard G., 1984. "Competition with Lumpy Investment," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt11v5q20z, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  7. Bart Lambrecht & William Perraudin, 1996. "Real Options and Preemption," Archive Working Papers 026, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  8. Fudenberg, Drew & Gilbert, Richard & Stiglitz, Joseph & Tirole, Jean, 1983. "Preemption, leapfrogging and competition in patent races," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-31, June.
  9. Dasgupta, P. & Stiglitz, J. E., 1988. "Potential competition, actual competition, and economic welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 569-577, March.
  10. Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equilization in the Adoption of New Technology," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401, July.
  11. Athey, Susan & Schmutzler, Armin, 2001. "Investment and Market Dominance," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 32(1), pages 1-26, Spring.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Boyer, Marcel & Lasserre, Pierre & Moreaux, Michel, 2012. "A dynamic duopoly investment game without commitment under uncertain market expansion," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 663-681.
  2. Thijssen, J.J.J. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2002. "Symmetric Equilibrium Strategies in Game Theoretical Real Option Models," Discussion Paper 2002-81, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2000. "Strategic Technology Adoptation Taking into Account Future Technological Improvements: A Real Options Approach," Discussion Paper 2000-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Maria Cecilia Bustamante, 2011. "Strategic investment, industry concentration and the cross section of returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37454, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  5. Thijssen, Jacco J. J. & Huisman, Kuno J. M. & Kort, Peter M., 2004. "The effect of information streams on capital budgeting decisions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(3), pages 759-774, September.
  6. Maria Cecillia Bustamante, 2011. "Strategic Investment, Industry Concentration and the Cross Section of Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp681, Financial Markets Group.
  7. Boyer, Marcel & Robert, Jacques, 2006. "Organizational inertia and dynamic incentives," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 324-348, March.
  8. Jacco Thijssen & Kuno Huisman & Peter Kort, 2006. "The effects of information on strategic investment and welfare," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 399-424, 06.
  9. Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda, 2003. "Strategic Commitment Versus Flexibility in a Duopoly with Entry and Exit," Discussion Papers 1379, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2001s-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Webmaster).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.