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Bubble Economics

Author

Listed:
  • Tomohiro Hirano

    (Royal Holloway, University of London
    Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)
    Canon Institute for Global Studies)

  • Alexis Akira Toda

    (University of California San Diego)

Abstract

This article provides a self-contained overview of the theory of rational asset price bubbles. We cover topics from basic definitions, properties, and classical results to frontier research, with an emphasis on bubbles attached to real assets such as stocks, housing, and land. The main message is that bubbles attached to real assets are fundamentally nonstationary phenomena related to unbalanced growth. We present a bare-bones model and draw three new insights: (i) the emergence of asset price bubbles is a necessity, instead of a possibility; (ii) asset pricing implications are markedly different between balanced growth of stationary nature and unbalanced growth of nonstationary nature; and (iii) asset price bubbles occur within larger historical trends involving shifts in industrial structure driven by technological innovation, including the transition from the Malthusian economy to the modern economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomohiro Hirano & Alexis Akira Toda, 2023. "Bubble Economics," Discussion Papers 2322, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    • Handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2322
    as

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    File URL: https://www.lse.ac.uk/CFM/assets/pdf/CFM-Discussion-Papers-2023/CFMDP2023-22-Paper.pdf
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Tomohiro Hirano & Alexis Akira Toda, 2023. "Bubble Economics," Papers 2311.03638, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan & Timothy Sablik, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20, pages 1-4, January.
    2. Hori, Takeo & Im, Ryonghun, 2023. "Asset bubbles, entrepreneurial risks, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    3. Tomohiro Hirano & Noriyuki Yanagawa, 2017. "Asset Bubbles, Endogenous Growth, and Financial Frictions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(1), pages 406-443.
    4. Hirano, Tomohiro & Inaba, Masaru & Yanagawa, Noriyuki, 2015. "Asset bubbles and bailouts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 71-89.
    5. Grossman, Gene M. & Yanagawa, Noriyuki, 1993. "Asset bubbles and endogenous growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 3-19, February.
    6. Plantin, Guillaume, 2023. "Asset bubbles and inflation as competing monetary phenomena," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. Bloise, G. & Citanna, A., 2019. "Asset shortages, liquidity and speculative bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 952-990.
    8. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    9. Takashi Kamihigashi, 1998. "Uniqueness of asset prices in an exchange economy with unbounded utility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 12(1), pages 103-122.
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    11. Ryosuke Shimizu, 2018. "Bubbles, growth and imperfection of credit market in a two-country model," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 353-377, August.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bubbles attached to real assets; necessity versus possibility; nonstationarity; technological progress; unbalanced growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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