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Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining (Published in IEEE Access)

Author

Listed:
  • Souta Nakatani

    (MTEC and Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Kiyohiko G. Nishimura

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) and CARF, University of Tokyo)

  • Taiga Saito

    (Graduate School of Economics and CARF, University of Tokyo)

  • Akihiko Takahashi

    (Graduate School of Economics and CARF, University of Tokyo)

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates an interest rate model with investor attitude factors, which are extracted by a text mining method. First, we consider two contrastive attitudes (optimistic versus conservative) towards uncertainties about Brownian motions driving economy, develop an interest rate model, and obtain an empirical framework of the economy consisting of permanent and transitory factors. Second, we apply the framework to a bond market under extremely low interest rate environment in recent years, and show that our three-factor model with level, steepening and flattening factors based on different investor attitudes is capable of explaining the yield curve in the Japanese government bond (JGB) markets. Third, text mining of a large text base of daily financial news reports enables us to distinguish between steepening and flattening factors, and from these textual data we can identify events and economic conditions that are associated with the steepening and flattening factors. We then estimate the yield curve and three factors with frequencies of relevant word groups chosen from textual data in addition to observed interest rates. Finally, we show that the estimated three factors, extracted only from the bond market data, are able to explain the movement in stock markets, in particular Nikkei 225 index.

Suggested Citation

  • Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2020. "Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining (Published in IEEE Access)," CARF F-Series CARF-F-479, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf479
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leippold, Markus & Wu, Liuren, 2002. "Asset Pricing under the Quadratic Class," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(2), pages 271-295, June.
    2. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Online Appendix for Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1136, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Muhammad Soichiro Takahashi, 2017. "Creating Investment Scheme with State Space Modeling," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1038, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Hisashi Nakamura & Wataru Nozawa & Akihiko Takahashi, 2009. "Macroeconomic Implications of Term Structures of Interest Rates Under Stochastic Differential Utility with Non-Unitary EIS," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 16(3), pages 231-263, September.
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    11. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(3), pages 297-337, September.
    12. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi, 2017. "Fuzzy Logic-based Portfolio Selection with Particle Filtering and Anomaly Detection," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1037, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    13. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi, 2017. "Creating Investment Scheme with State Space Modeling," CARF F-Series cf406, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    14. Akihiko Takahashi & Seisho Sato, 2001. "A Monte Carlo Filtering Approach for Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 53(1), pages 50-62, March.
    15. Takaya Fukui & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2017. "Style analysis with particle filtering and generalized simulated annealing," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02n03), pages 1-29, June.
    16. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Online Appendix for Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CARF F-Series CARF-F-470, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    17. Felix Ming Fai Wong & Zhenming Liu & Mung Chiang, 2014. "Stock Market Prediction from WSJ: Text Mining via Sparse Matrix Factorization," Papers 1406.7330, arXiv.org.
    18. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi, 2019. "State Space Approach to Adaptive Fuzzy Modeling for Financial Investment," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1120, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
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    Cited by:

    1. Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2021. "Portfolio Optimization with Choice of a Probability Measure," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1165, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    2. Keisuke Kizaki & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2022. "Multi-agent Robust Optimal Investment Problem in Incomplete Market," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1198, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Daiya Mita & Akihiko Takahashi, 2022. "Multi-Agent Model Based Proactive Risk Management For Equity Investment," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1207, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Keisuke Kizaki & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2024. "Multi-agent Equilibrium Model with Heterogeneous Views on Fundamental Risks in Incomplete Market," CARF F-Series CARF-F-578, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    5. Keisuke Kizaki & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2021. "Equilibrium Multi-Agent Model with Heterogeneous Views on Fundamental Risks," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1173, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    6. Taiga Saito & Shivam Gupta, 2022. "Big Data Applications with Theoretical Models and Social Media in Financial Management," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1205, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    7. Taiga Saito & Shivam Gupta, 2022. "Big data applications with theoretical models and social media in financial management," CARF F-Series CARF-F-550, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    8. Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi, 2022. "A state space modeling for proactive management in equity investment "Forthcoming in International Journal of Financial Engineering"," CARF F-Series CARF-F-543, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    9. Keisuke Kizaki & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2023. "Multi-agent Robust Optimal Investment Problem in Incomplete Market," CARF F-Series CARF-F-575, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    10. Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi, 2022. "A State Space Modeling for Proactive Management in Equity Investment," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1197, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    11. Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2022. "Portfolio optimization with choice of a probability measure (forthcoming in proceedings of IEEE CIFEr 2022)," CARF F-Series CARF-F-534, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

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