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History, Expectations, and Public Policy: Economic Development in Eastern Germany

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  • Andreas Schäfer
  • Thomas Steger

Abstract

Motivated by the process of economic development in Eastern Germany since the German reunification we set up a dynamic macroeconomic model of a small open economy where both capital and labor are mobile and there are increasing returns to scale at the aggregate level. The model features multiple equilibria as well as (local and global) indeterminacy. Expectations matter for resulting equilibrium dynamics, implying that economic confidence may be crucial for the process of economic development. Despite its simplicity, the model can replicate major empirical facts and bears a number of non-trivial implications.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2010/wp-cesifo-2010-09/cesifo1_wp3184.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3184.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3184

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Related research

Keywords: increasing returns to scale; capital mobility; migration; multiple equilibria; indeterminacy; history vs. expectations; economic policy;

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References

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  1. Burda, Michael C., 2008. "What kind of shock was it? Regional integration and structural change in Germany after unification," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 557-567, December.
  2. Michael Funke & Holge Strulik, 1999. "Growth and Convergence in a Two-Region Model of Unified Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 206, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Michael C. Burda, 2006. "Factor Reallocation in Eastern Germany after Reunification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 368-374, May.
  4. David Aschauer, 1988. "Is public expenditure productive?," Staff Memoranda 88-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Jennifer Hunt, 2006. "Staunching Emigration from East Germany: Age and the Determinants of Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1014-1037, 09.
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Cited by:
  1. Sebastian Vollmer & Hajo Holzmann & Florian Ketterer & Stephan Klasen, 2010. "Distribution Dynamics of Regional GDP per Employee in Unifi ed Germany," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 55, Courant Research Centre PEG, revised 26 Sep 2011.

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