Do Elections Affect the Composition of Fiscal Policy?
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of elections on the level and composition of fiscal instruments using a sample of 19 high-income OECD countries that can be characterized as developed, established democracies during the period 1972-1999. We find that elections shift public spending towards current and away from capital expenditures. Moreover, although we find no evidence for an electoral cycle for government deficit and expenditures, we do find a negative effect of elections on revenue. Our results indicate that the fall in revenue in election periods is attributed to a fall in direct taxation. The decomposition of our electoral dummy suggests that fiscal manipulation seems to be concentrated shortly before the elections. Finally, when we distinguish among predetermined and endogenous elections we find that the above results apply only for the predetermined electoral periods while endogenous elections seem to increase the budget deficit and to leave the composition of fiscal policy unaffected.Download Info
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2908.Length:
Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2908
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Related research
Keywords: political budget cycles; elections; composition of fiscal policy; quality of public expenditure;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Niklas Potrafke, 2010.
"Does government ideology influence budget composition? Empirical evidence from OECD countries,"
Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz
2010-16, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
- Niklas Potrafke, 2011. "Does government ideology influence budget composition? Empirical evidence from OECD countries," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 101-134, June.
- Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2011.
"Public Investment and Re-election Prospects in Developed Countries,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3570, CESifo Group Munich.
- Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2013. "Public Investment and Re-election Prospects in Developed Countries," Working Papers 2013004, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
- Niklas Potrafke, 2010. "Ideology and cultural policy," TWI Research Paper Series 49, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
- Niklas Potrafke, 2012.
"Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: empirical evidence from 1951–2006,"
Public Choice,
Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 155-179, January.
- Potrafke, Niklas, 2009. "Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: empirical evidence from 1951-2006," MPRA Paper 23751, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Christian Bj�rnskov & Niklas Potrafke, 2012.
"Political Ideology and Economic Freedom Across Canadian Provinces,"
Eastern Economic Journal,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(2), pages 143-166.
- Christian Bjørnskov & Niklas Potrafke, 2009. "Political ideology and economic freedom across Canadian provinces," Working Papers CEB 09-054.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Potrafke, Niklas, 2010.
"The growth of public health expenditures in OECD countries: Do government ideology and electoral motives matter?,"
Journal of Health Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 797-810, December.
- Potrafke, Niklas, 2010. "The growth of public health expenditures in OECD countries: do government ideology and electoral motives matter?," MPRA Paper 24083, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mechtel, Mario & Potrafke, Niklas, 2011.
"Electoral Cycles in Active Labor Market Policies,"
University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance
2, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences.
- Mario Mechtel & Niklas Potrafke, 2011. "Electoral Cycles in Active Labor Market Policies," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-39, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
- Santolini, Raffaella, 2011. "Do electoral rules and elections matter in expenditure fragmentation? Empirical evidence from Italian regions," MPRA Paper 29724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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