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Implications of EU Accession for International Migration: An Assessment of Potential Migration Pressure

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Author Info
Anzelika Zaiceva ()
Abstract

This paper estimates the potential migration from eight EU accession countries as well as Bulgaria and Romania as a result of the eastern enlargement. The experience of migration from Greece, Portugal and Spain is used to estimate the parameters of a migration function, exploiting panel estimation techniques. The results from the models are then used for so-called double out of sample extrapolations - for ten countries that are not within the estimated sample and for the time period in the future. It was found that potential migration flows from central and eastern Europe will be modest. Moreover, legal introduction of free movement of workers seems not to increase migration significantly, contrary to what one might expect.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1184.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1184

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Related research
Keywords: international migration; migration projections; EU enlargement; panel estimation;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2000. "EU Enlargement and the Future of the Welfare State," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Burda,M.C., 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," Papers 597, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    Other versions:
  4. Kraus, Margit & Schwager, Robert, 2000. "EU enlargement and immigration," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-09, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Yuri Andrienko & Sergei Guriev, 2003. "Determinants of Interregional Mobility in Russia: Evidence from Panel Data," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 551, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. William T. Dickens & Lawrence F. Katz, 1987. "Interindustry Wage Differences and Industry Characteristics," NBER Working Papers 2014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ximena Clark & Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2002. "Where Do U.S. Immigrants Come From, and Why?," NBER Working Papers 8998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jennifer Hunt, 2000. "Why Do People Still Live in East Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 201, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Ghatak, Subrata & Levine, Paul & Price, Stephen Wheatley, 1996. " Migration Theories and Evidence: An Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 159-98, June.
  10. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  11. Thomas Bauer & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 1999. "Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  12. Jana Bruder, 2003. "East-West Migration in Europe, 2004 - 2015," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 40, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  13. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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