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Semiparametric Estimation of Fractional Cointegration

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  • Javier Hualde
  • Peter M Robinson

Abstract

A semiparametric bivariate fractionally cointegrated system is considered, integrationorders possibly being unknown and I (0) unobservable inputs having nonparametricspectral density. Two kinds of estimate of the cointegrating parameter ? are considered,one involving inverse spectral weighting and the other, unweighted statistics with a spectralestimate at frequency zero. We establish under quite general conditions the asymptoticdistributional properties of the estimates of ?, both in case of "strong cointegration" (whenthe difference between integration orders of observables and cointegrating errors exceeds1/2) and in case of "weak cointegration" (when that difference is less than 1/2), whichincludes the case of (asymptotically) stationary observables. Across both cases, the sameWald test statistic has the same standard null ?2 limit distribution, irrespective of whetherintegration orders are known or estimated. The regularity conditions include unprimitiveones on the integration orders and spectral density estimates, but we check these undermore primitive conditions on particular estimates. Finite-sample properties are examined ina Monte Carlo study.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Hualde & Peter M Robinson, 2006. "Semiparametric Estimation of Fractional Cointegration," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 502, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:stiecm:502
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hualde, J. & Robinson, P.M., 2007. "Root-n-consistent estimation of weak fractional cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 450-484, October.
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    5. Velasco, Carlos, 1999. "Non-stationary log-periodogram regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 325-371, August.
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    7. Robinson, Peter M. & Henry, Marc, 2003. "Higher-order kernel semiparametric M-estimation of long memory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 1-27, May.
    8. Lobato, Ignacio N., 1999. "A semiparametric two-step estimator in a multivariate long memory model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 129-153, May.
    9. Robinson, Peter M. & Hualde, Javier, 2003. "Cointegration in fractional systems with unknown integration orders," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2223, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Donald W. K. Andrews & Yixiao Sun, 2004. "Adaptive Local Polynomial Whittle Estimation of Long-range Dependence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 569-614, March.
    11. Marinucci, D. & Robinson, P. M., 2000. "Weak convergence of multivariate fractional processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 103-120, March.
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    14. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006. "Asymptotic normality of narrow-band least squares in the stationary fractional cointegration model and volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 343-371, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. da Silva, Afonso Gonçalves & Robinson, Peter M., 2008. "Fractional Cointegration In Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1207-1253, October.
    2. Hualde, J. & Robinson, P.M., 2010. "Semiparametric inference in multivariate fractionally cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 492-511, August.
    3. Avarucci, Marco & Velasco, Carlos, 2009. "A Wald test for the cointegration rank in nonstationary fractional systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(2), pages 178-189, August.
    4. Morten Ø. Nielsen & Per Houmann Frederiksen, 2008. "Fully Modified Narrow-band Least Squares Estimation Of Stationary Fractional Cointegration," Working Paper 1171, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    5. Katarzyna Lasak, 2008. "Maximum likelihood estimation of fractionally cointegrated systems," CREATES Research Papers 2008-53, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    6. Javier Hualde, 2012. "Estimation of the cointegrating rank in fractional cointegration," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 1205, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    7. Man Wang & Ngai Hang Chan, 2016. "Testing for the Equality of Integration Orders of Multiple Series," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-10, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fractional cointegration; semiparametric model; unknown integration orders.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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