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Forward Discount Bias, Nalebuff's Envelope Puzzle, and the Siegel Paradox in Foreign Exchange

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  • Edlin, Aaron S.
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    Abstract

    The bias of forward exchange rates as a predictor of future spot rates is typically explained or decomposed as (1) a risk premium and (2) a convexity term which accounts for the fact that, when there is stochastic inflation, nominal gains from forward currency speculation are higher than real ones and correspondingly losses are smaller. We use Nalebuff's envelope puzzle to explain a third source of bias which involves real profits from foreign exchange speculation. Both the "real profit" bias and stochastic inflation bias arise from convexity of g(s)=1/s and so derive from Jensen's inequality as observed by Siegel (1972).

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    Paper provided by Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics in its series Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series with number qt2wc1p9pw.

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    Date of creation: 01 Jun 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:cdl:oplwec:qt2wc1p9pw

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    1. Kenneth A. Froot and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Economics Working Papers 8874, University of California at Berkeley.
    2. Sibert, Anne, 1989. "The Risk Premium in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 49-65, February.
    3. Engel, Charles M., 1984. "Testing for the absence of expected real profits from forward market speculation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 299-308, November.
    4. McCulloch, J Huston, 1975. "Operational Aspects of the Siegel Paradox: Comment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 170-72, February.
    5. Grauer, Frederick L. A. & Litzenberger, Robert H. & Stehle, Richard E., 1976. "Sharing rules and equilibrium in an international capital market under uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 233-256, June.
    6. Tiff Macklem, R., 1991. "Forward exchange rates and risk premiums in artificial economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 365-391, September.
    7. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
    8. Murray C. Kemp & Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "A Simple Model of Privately Profitable But Socially Useless Speculation," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 84-94, 03.
    9. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1989. "Expected utility and the Siegel paradox," Munich Reprints in Economics 19849, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    10. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971 Elsevier.
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