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Bond Pricing with Default Risk

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  • Saa-Requejo, Jesus
  • Santa-Clara, Pedro

Abstract

We offer a new model for pricing bonds subject to default risk. The event of default is remodeled as the first time that a state variable that captures the solvency of the issue goes below a certain level. The payoff to the bond in case of default is a constant fraction of the value of a security with the same promised payoffs but without the risk of default. We show that our model is very tractable under different models of interest rate risk and of the interaction between default risk and interest rate risk, with closed-form solutions for corporate bond prices in special cases. The model is seen to produce term structures of default yield spreads and forward spreads with more reasonable properties than other models that have recently been proposed. We illustrate the issue of our model by estimating its parameters and backing up both the default writedown and the state variable that governs default risk from a panel data set of bond prices issued by RJR Nabisco.

Suggested Citation

  • Saa-Requejo, Jesus & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 1997. "Bond Pricing with Default Risk," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt3w71g2ch, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt3w71g2ch
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    Cited by:

    1. Kanak Patel & Prodromos Vlamis, 2006. "An Empirical Estimation of Default Risk of the UK Real Estate Companies," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 21-40, February.
    2. Delianedis, Gordon & Geske, Robert, 2001. "The Components of Corporate Credit Spreads: Default, Recovery, Tax, Jumps, Liquidity, and Market Factors," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt32x284q3, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    3. Han-Hsing Lee & Ren-Raw Chen & Cheng Few Lee, 2020. "Empirical Studies of Structural Credit Risk Models and the Application in Default Prediction: Review and New Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Cheng Few Lee & John C Lee (ed.), HANDBOOK OF FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS, MATHEMATICS, STATISTICS, AND MACHINE LEARNING, chapter 50, pages 1845-1901, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Zvika Afik & Ohad Arad & Koresh Galil, 2012. "Using Merton model: an empirical assessment of alternatives," Working Papers 1202, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    5. Hugues Pirotte, 1999. "Implementing a Structural Valuation Model of Swap Credit-Sensitive Rates," Working Papers CEB 99-001.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Jan Ericsson & Joel Reneby, 1998. "A framework for valuing corporate securities," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3-4), pages 143-163.
    7. Martina Nardon, 2005. "Valuing defaultable bonds: an excursion time approach," Finance 0511015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Robert Elliott & Jia Shen, 2015. "Dynamic optimal capital structure with regime switching," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 199-220, May.
    9. Maclachlan, Iain C, 2007. "An empirical study of corporate bond pricing with unobserved capital structure dynamics," MPRA Paper 28416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Vilimir Yordanov, 2012. "The Bulgarian Foreign and Domestic Debt ??? A No-Arbitrage Macrofinancial View," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1032, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    11. Mr. Marcel Peter & Martín Grandes, 2005. "How Important Is Sovereign Risk in Determining Corporate Default Premia? The Case of South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2005/217, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Reneby, Joel & Ericsson, Jan, 2001. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities: Theory and Tests," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 445, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 07 Jan 2003.
    13. Ericsson, Jan & Reneby, Joel, 2003. "Valuing Corporate Liabilities," SIFR Research Report Series 15, Institute for Financial Research.
    14. Gregor Dorfleitner & Paul Schneider & Tanja Veža, 2011. "Flexing the default barrier," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(12), pages 1729-1743.
    15. Fabian Astic & Agnès Tourin, 2014. "On The Credit Risk Of Secured Loans With Maximum Loan-To-Value Covenants," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(08), pages 1-19.

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