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Compétitivité-prix des exportations chinoises sur les marchés des pays industrialisés

Author

Listed:
  • Ping HUA

    (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique(CNRS))

Abstract

Actuellement, les Etats-Unis exercent une forte pression pour une ré-évaluation du Renminbi afin de réduire leur déficit commercial envers la Chine. Cette pression est-elle justifiée? Les analyses statistiques montrent que la forte croissance des exportations chinoises vers les pays industrialisés est la conséquence d’une redistribution des exportations asiatiques en faveur de la Chine et donc ne détruit pas nécessairement les emplois américains dans les secteurs concurrents des biens chinois où les Etats-Unis n’ont plus d’avantage comparatif. Elles montrent également que la part de marché des biens chinois est très faible dans les importations totales des Etats-Unis et donc le faible prix des biens chinois ne peut pas être la cause principale de la déflation américaine. Elles montrent enfin qu’il existe trois types de concurrence pour expliquer les exportations bilatérales chinoises. Un modèle explicatif est ensuite développé pour capter ces trois types de concurrence, mesurées par trois prix relatifs différents, ou taux de change réels: 1. taux de change réel du pays importateur à l’égard de la Chine (compétitivité-prix des biens chinois sur le marché importateur), 2. taux de change effectif réel de la Chine à l’égard des autres pays importateurs (compétitivité-prix des biens chinois sur les autres marchés d’exportation de la Chine), 3. taux de change effectif réel du pays importateur vis-à-vis des autres pays exportateurs, concurrents de la Chine. Les estimations économétriques portent sur les exportations bilatérales chinoises vers onze pays industrialisés pour la période 1980-2000 et sont effectuées avec le modèle des momentanés généralisés. Les résultats montrent que les trois taux de change réels sont statistiquement significatifs, ainsi que la demande du pays importateur et la capacité de production de la Chine. Ainsi, les exportations bilatérales de la Chine sont influencées par les politiques de taux de change de tous les pays concernés.

Suggested Citation

  • Ping HUA, 2004. "Compétitivité-prix des exportations chinoises sur les marchés des pays industrialisés," Working Papers 200417, CERDI.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:623
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    References listed on IDEAS

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