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The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method

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  • Chiu, Yi-Bin
  • Lee, Chien-Chiang
  • Sun, Chia-Hung

Abstract

The United States economy suffers from persistent trade deficits, arising from the so-called 'global external imbalance'. Can the depreciation of the US dollar improve this phenomenon? This study for the first time applies the heterogeneous panel cointegration method to examine the long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and bilateral trade balance of the U.S. and her 97 trading partners for the period 1973-2006. Using new annual data, the empirical results indicate that the devaluation of the US dollar deteriorates her bilateral trade balance with 13 trading partners, but improves it with 37 trading partners, especially for China. In the panel cointegrated framework, a long-run negative relationship between the real exchange rate and the bilateral trade balance exists for the U.S.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 27 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 705-716

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:3:p:705-716

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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Keywords: Bilateral trade balance Real exchange rate Panel cointegration analysis Devaluation;

References

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Cited by:
  1. Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon & Jane Korinek, 2011. "To What Extent Do Exchange Rates and their Volatility Affect Trade?," OECD Trade Policy Papers 119, OECD Publishing.
  2. Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Global imbalances, cross-market linkages, and the financial crisis: A multivariate Markov-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 943-973.
  3. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Serranito, Francisco, 2014. "Long-run determinants of current accounts in OECD countries: Lessons for intra-European imbalances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 451-462.
  4. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sallenave, Audrey, 2014. "The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: A multilateral approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 149-163.

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