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Relative Profitability, Supply Shifters and Dynamic Output Response:The Indian Foodgrains

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Author Info
SUNIL KANWAR (Delhi School of Economics)

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Abstract

The realisation that the wage-goods constraint, if binding, could stall the growth process of a developing country, prompted policy makers to encourage agriculture by various means. The success of public policy depends, however, on how strongly farmers respond to the incentives provided. Using a large panel dataset pertaining to Indian agriculture - spanning the period 1967-68/1999-00, and covering the 6 important food crops cultivated across 16 major states - we provide estimates of area, yield and output elasticities w.r.t price and nonprice factors. We find consistent evidence, that the supply response of food crops is influenced by rainfall, input availability (specifically irrigation, fertilizer and improved seeds), and relative profits, in that order of importance. Our results prompt us to conclude, that all things considered, the preferred policy should be to encourage irrigation, fertilizer use and the use of modern seeds, rather than raise output support/procurement prices period after period.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics in its series Working papers with number 133.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:133

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Related research
Keywords: wage-goods; price incentives; supply shifters;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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  1. Marc Nerlove, 1979. "The Dynamics of Supply: Retrospect and Prospect," Discussion Papers 394, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
  2. Nerlove, Marc & Bessler, David A., 2001. "Expectations, information and dynamics," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 155-206 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Holt, Matthew T., 1999. "A Linear Approximate Acreage Allocation Model," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(02), December. [Downloadable!]
  4. Rosegrant, Mark W. & Kasryno, Faisal & Perez, Nicostrato D., 1998. "Output response to prices and public investment in agriculture: Indonesian food crops," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 333-352, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Holt, Matthew T, 1996. "Economic Behavior under Uncertainty: A Joint Analysis of Risk Preferences and Technology," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 329-35, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Barten, Anton P. & Vanloot, Chris, 1996. "Price dynamics in agriculture: An exercise in historical econometrics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 315-331, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Key, Nigel & Sadoulet, Elisabeth & de Janvry, Alain, 2000. " Transactions Costs and Agricultural Household Supply Response," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 82(2), pages 245-59, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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