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Non mean reverting affne processes for stochastic mortality

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Author Info
Elisa Luciano
Elena Vigna

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Abstract

In this paper we use doubly stochastic processes (or Cox processes) in order to model the random evolution of mortality of an individual. These processes have been widely used in the credit risk literature in modelling default arrival, and in this context have proved to be quite flexible, especially when the intensity process is of the affne class. We investigate the applicability of time-homogeneous a±ne processes in describing the individual's intensity of mortality and the mortality trend, as well as in forecasting it. We calibrate them to the UK population. Calibrations suggest that, in spite of their popularity in the financial context, mean reverting time-homogeneous processes are less suitable for describing the death intensity of individuals than non mean reverting processes. Among the latter, affne processes whose determin- istic part increases exponentially seem to be appropriate. They are natural generalizations of the Gompertz law. Stress analysis and analytical results indicate that increasing the randomness of the intensity process for a given cohort results in improvements in survivorship. Mortality forecasts and their comparison with experienced mortality rates provide further encour- aging evidence in favour of non mean reverting processes. The mortality trend is evidenced through the evolution over time of the parameters and through the intensity simulation for di®erent gener- ations.

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Paper provided by Collegio Carlo Alberto in its series Carlo Alberto Notebooks with number 30.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:30

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Related research
Keywords: doubly stochastic processes (Cox processes) affne processes stochastic mortality mortality forecasting.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts

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  26. Matteo Triossi, 2006. "Application Costs in Sequential Admission Mechanisms," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 23, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
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  32. Andrea Buffa & Giovanna Nicodano, 2006. "Should Insider Trading be Prohibited when Share Repurchases are Allowed?," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 16, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alexander Melnikov & Yuliya Romanyuk, 2006. "Efficient Hedging and Pricing of Equity-Linked Life Insurance Contracts on Several Risky Assets," Working Papers 06-43, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paolo Ghirardato & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2007. "Revealed Ambiguity and Its Consequences: Updating," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 44, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
  3. Russell Gerrard & Bjarne Højgaard & Elena Vigna, 2008. "Choosing the Optimal Annuitization Time Post Retirement," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 76, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
  4. Daron Acemoglu & Davide Ticchi & Andrea Vindigni, 2008. "A Theory of Military Dictatorships," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 74, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Elisa Luciano & Jaap Spreeuw & Elena Vigna, 2007. "Modelling stochastic mortality for dependent lives," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 43, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Elisa Luciano & Elena Vigna, 2006. "Non mean reverting affne processes for stochastic mortality," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 30, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Itzhak Gilboa & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & David Schmeidler, 2008. "Objective and Subjective Rationality in a Multiple Prior Model," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 73, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
  8. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Muhamet Yildiz, 2007. "Learning and Disagreement in an Uncertain World," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 48, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
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