Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A Stochastic Model for the Analysis of Demographic Risk in Pay-As-You-Go Pension Funds

Contents:

Author Info

  • Alessandro Fiori Maccioni

    (CRENoS and University of Sassari)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This research presents an analysis of the demographic risk related to future membership patterns in pension funds with restricted entrance, financed under a pay-as-you-go scheme. The paper, therefore, proposes a stochastic model for investigating the behaviour of the demographic variable "new entrants" and the influence it exerts on the financial dynamics of such funds. Further information on pension funds of Italian professional categories and an application to the Cassa Nazionale di Previdenza e Assistenza dei Dottori Commercialisti (CNPADC) are then provided.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1106.5081
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1106.5081.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: Jun 2011
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published in Mathemathical Methods in Economics and Finance, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 41-60, 2008
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1106.5081

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://arxiv.org/

    Related research

    Keywords:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J. G. & Dowd, Kevin, 2001. "Pensionmetrics: stochastic pension plan design and value-at-risk during the accumulation phase," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 187-215, October.
    2. Mandl, Petr & Mazurova, Lucie, 1996. "Harmonic analysis of pension funding methods," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 203-214, April.
    3. Cairns, Andrew J. G. & Parker, Gary, 1997. "Stochastic pension fund modelling," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 43-79, October.
    4. David Blake & Andrew J. G. Cairns & Kevin Dowd, 2003. "Pensionmetrics 2: stochastic pension plan design during the distribution phase," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24830, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. G. Abío & Geraldine Mahieu & Cio Patxot, 2003. "On the Optimality of PAYG Pension Systems in an Endogenous Fertility Setting," CESifo Working Paper Series 1050, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    7. Gerrard, Russell & Haberman, Steven & Vigna, Elena, 2004. "Optimal investment choices post-retirement in a defined contribution pension scheme," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 321-342, October.
    8. Guillaume Plantin & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2007. "Introduction to When Insurers Go Bust: An Economic Analysis of the Role and Design of Prudential Regulation
      [When Insurers Go Bust: An Economic Analysis of the Role and Design of Prudential Regulat
      ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
    9. Colombo, Luigi & Haberman, Steven, 2005. "Optimal contributions in a defined benefit pension scheme with stochastic new entrants," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 335-354, October.
    10. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1998. "The Pay-As-You-Go Pension System as a Fertility Insurance and Enforcement Device," NBER Working Papers 6610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. A. Roger Thatcher & Väinö Kannisto & Kirill F. Andreev, 2002. "The Survivor Ratio Method for Estimating Numbers at High Ages," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, January.
    12. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1997. "The Value of Children and Immigrants in a Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: A Proposal For a Partial Transition to a Funded System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1734, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Olivieri, Annamaria & Pitacco, Ermanno, 2003. "Solvency requirements for pension annuities," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 127-157, July.
    14. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1999. "Pension Reform and Demographic Crisis: Why a Funded System is Needed and why it is not Needed," CESifo Working Paper Series 195, CESifo Group Munich.
    15. Olivieri, Annamaria, 2001. "Uncertainty in mortality projections: an actuarial perspective," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 231-245, October.
    16. Pitacco, Ermanno, 2004. "Survival models in a dynamic context: a survey," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 279-298, October.
    17. Angrisani, M., Attias, A., Bianchi, S. & Varga, Z., 2004. "Demographic dynamics for the pay-as-you-go pension system," Pure Mathematics and Applications, Department of Mathematics, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 15(4), pages 357-374.
    18. Carlo Bianchi & Marzia Romanelli & Pietro A. Vagliasindi, 2003. "Microsimulating the Evolution of Italian Pension Benefits: the Role of Retirement Choices and Lowest Pensions Indexing," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 17(SpecialIs), pages 139-173, 08.
    19. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
    20. Haberman, Steven, 1997. "Stochastic investment returns and contribution rate risk in a defined benefit pension scheme," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 127-139, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1106.5081. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.