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What aggregate data can tell us about voter turnout in Canada; did changes in the distribution of income matter?

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Abstract

Canada, like many developed economies, has experienced a decline in voter turnout since the early 1990s. This paper examines the extent to which aggregate data can explain the movement of voter turnout over time. Time series concerns suggest that OLS results indicating that changes in constituency size, the proportion of the population registered to vote, the degree of wealth inequality, the degree of political competition and the evolving interests of younger voters can all help to explain a good portion voter turnout over the post 1976 time period may be spurious. ARDL re-estimation re-establishes a narrower form of cointegration, confirming a number of hypotheses while rejecting the hypotheses that changes in the proportion of young people in the electorate and voter alienation, as proxied by the Gini coefficient, have played a significant role in affecting voter turnout in Canada.

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  • Stephen J. Ferris & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2020. "What aggregate data can tell us about voter turnout in Canada; did changes in the distribution of income matter?," Carleton Economic Papers 20-18, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:20-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    voter turnout;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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