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The Industrial Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks: Some Stylised Facts

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  • Joe Ganley
  • Chris Salmon
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the disaggregated effects of monetary policy shocks on the output of 24 sectors of the UK economy. The paper's principal aim is to provide stylised facts about the sectoral responses to unexpected changes in monetary policy and to help assess how monetary policy developments feed through the economy. It also provides indirect evidence about the underlying nature of the transmission mechanism. The first set of results relates to the largest industrial sectors - construction, services, production industries (including utilities and manufacturing) - which sum together to form the output measure of GDP. Thereafter the paper focuses on the manufacturing sector alone. Data sources for manufacturing are richer than for other sectors of the economy, which allows a more detailed analysis of the factors that might account for the pattern of responses to monetary shocks which we observe across manufacturing. Focusing first on the main industrial sectors, the paper finds that the effects of an unanticipated monetary policy tightening seem to be unevenly distributed across sectors of the economy. As might be expected, sectors such as construction show a sizeable and rapid decline in output, whereas others, like services, show a much more muted reaction. Manufacturing as a whole also responds quite sharply to a monetary tightening, but some large industrial sectors, notably the utilities, show a subdued reaction. Turning finally to the manufacturing sector alone, the paper shows that the (2 digit SIC) sectors that comprise manufacturing also exhibit diverse responses to a monetary shock. The paper shows the pattern of manufacturing sector responses seems correlated with the size characteristics of the firms in each sector. In particular, sectors which mainly comprise "small" firms tend to exhibit a stronger reaction to monetary shocks than sectors that mainly comprise "larger" firms. This might indicate that credit market imperfections play a role in the monetary policy transmission process.

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    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/1997/wp68.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 68.

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    Date of creation: Sep 1997
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    Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:68

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    1. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1991. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," NBER Working Papers 3892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
    3. Mark Gertler, 1988. "Financial structure and aggregate economic activity: an overview," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 559-596.
    4. Dale, Spencer & Haldane, Andrew G., 1995. "Interest rates and the channels of monetary transmission: Some sectoral estimates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1611-1626, December.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, October.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1994. "Identification and the effects of monetary policy shocks," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-31, November.
    9. Pain, Nigel & Westaway, Peter, 1996. "The Demand for Domestic Output and Imports in the U.K.: A Dynamic Systems Approach," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 64(1), pages 1-21, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Ivo J.M. Arnold, 2013. "The industry effects of monetary policy and their welfare implications," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(214), pages 287-315.
    2. Norrbin, Stefan, 2001. "What Have We Learned from Empirical Tests of the Monetary Transmission Effect," Working Paper Series 121, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Héctor F. Bravo & Carlos J. García & Verónica Mies & Matías Tapia, 2003. "Heterogeneity in Monetary Transmission: Sectoral and Regional Effects," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 235, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Andrew Brigden & Paul Mizen, 1999. "Money, credit and investment in UK corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 100, Bank of England.
    5. Verónica Mies M. & Felipe Morandé L. & Matías Tapia G., 2002. "Monetary Policy and Transmission Mechanisms: New Elements for an old Debate," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(3), pages 29-66, December.
    6. Laura Povoledo, 2007. "Volatility of the Tradeable and Non-Tradeable Sectors: Theory and evidence," Economic Analysis Research Group Working Papers earg-wp2007-10, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    7. repec:rdg:wpaper:em-dp2007-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Verónica Mies & Felipe Morandé & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Política Monetaria y Mecanismos de Transmisión: Nuevos Elementos para una Vieja Discusión," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 181, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Héctor Bravo L. & Carlos García T. & Verónica Mies M. & Matías Tapia G., 2003. "Heterogeneidad de la Transmisión Monetaria: Efectos Sectoriales y Regionales," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 6(3), pages 5-26, December.
    10. M. V. Cacdac Warnock & Francis E. Warnock, 2000. "The declining volatility of U.S. employment: was Arthur Burns right?," International Finance Discussion Papers 677, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Pablo Burriel-Llombart & Jonathan Thomas, 2001. "Skill imbalances in the UK labour market: 1979-99," Bank of England working papers 145, Bank of England.

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