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The effects of increased labour market flexibility in the United Kingdom: theory and practice

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Stephen P Millard

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Abstract

This paper uses the increase in labour market flexibility in the United Kingdom in recent years to see how well the predictions of a couple of recently developed labour market models can account for data. The two models examined are an 'equilibrium business cycle' model of the labour market and a 'search' model. The models do well in predicting the fall in the level and persistence of the unemployment rate and average hours since about 1985 as well as the step increase in consumption and output that seems to have occured. Conversely, unemployment incidence has fallen and the volatilities of output, consumption, employment and unemployment have all increased in the most recent cycle contrary to the predictions of the models.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 109.

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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:109

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  1. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Cho, Jang-Ok & Cooley, Thomas F., 1994. "Employment and hours over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 411-432, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Gali, Jordi, 1995. "Real Business Cycles with Involuntary Unemployment," Working Papers 95-12, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Abowd, John M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1993. "The Effects of Product Market Competition on Collective Bargaining Agreements: The Case of Foreign Competition in Canada," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 983-1014, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Scott, Andrew, 1996. "The Determinants of UK Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 1409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. George A. Akerlof & Andrew K. Rose & Janet L. Yellen, 1988. "Job Switching and Job Satisfaction in the U.S. Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1988-2), pages 495-594. [Downloadable!]
  8. Oliver Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1989. "The Beveridge Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1989-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Vincenzo Cassino & Richard Thornton, . "Do changes in structural factors explain movements in the equilibrium rate of unemployment?," Bank of England working papers 153, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. S. Sgherri, 2000. "When is labour market flexibility welcome? More on asymmetric policy impacts in Europe," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 619, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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