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Monetary policy transmission during QE times: role of expectations and term premia channels

Author

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  • Kaminska, Iryna

    (Bank of England)

  • Mumtaz, Haroon

    (Queen Mary University of London)

Abstract

This paper studies monetary policy transmission mechanisms during QE. Using high frequency yield curve event studies of monetary policy announcements in combination with a dynamic term structure model, we can identify four types of monetary policy surprises: action (working through effective policy rates), signalling (working through expected policy rates), policy uncertainty and QE-specific bond supply (both working through term premia). Applying the method to the case of the UK, we find that these channels have often operated together. Importantly, the main QE channels are transmitted to financial markets and the real economy in different ways, and only signalling is found to have ultimately affected inflation significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2022. "Monetary policy transmission during QE times: role of expectations and term premia channels," Bank of England working papers 978, Bank of England, revised 31 Aug 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0978
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael A. S. Joyce & Nick McLaren & Chris Young, 2012. "Quantitative easing in the United Kingdom: evidence from financial markets on QE1 and QE2," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(4), pages 671-701, WINTER.
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    4. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
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    8. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    9. George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the Economy‐wide Effects of Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 316-347, November.
    10. Kaminska, Iryna & Roberts-Sklar, Matt, 2018. "Volatility in equity markets and monetary policy rate uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 68-83.
    11. Nick McLaren & Ryan N. Banerjee & David Latto, 2014. "Using Changes in Auction Maturity Sectors to Help Identify the Impact of QE on Gilt Yields," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 453-479, May.
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    13. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Sustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Bank of England working papers 914, Bank of England, revised 28 Apr 2021.
    14. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Haroon Mumtaz & Jumana Saleheen & Roxane Spitznagel, 2023. "Keep it Simple: Central Bank Communication and Asset Prices," Working Papers 960, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Philippe Andrade & Filippo Ferroni & Leonardo Melosi, 2023. "Identification Using Higher-Order Moments Restrictions," Working Paper Series WP 2023-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Christopher S. Sutherland, 2023. "Forward guidance and expectation formation: A narrative approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 222-241, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; quantitative easing; monetary transmission mechanism; high frequency data; dynamic term structure model; local projection model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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